Four years after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine remains a grueling conflict with high human casualties and minimal territorial change. Russia continues to control about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine periodically launches local counteroffensives.
Amid the intensification of diplomatic efforts, Western analysts and former officials outline three possible scenarios for the development of events in the coming years.
The first scenario is a protracted stalemate. In this scenario, the war will remain a conflict of attrition, with neither side able to achieve a decisive turning point. Retired US Air Force General Philip Breedlove notes that, despite holding some territory, Russia is hardly a winner. According to him, the scale of losses and the lack of a strategic breakthrough indicate that neither side has gained a final advantage.
The second scenario involves a change in dynamics in favor of Ukraine. Individual successes of Ukrainian forces, in particular, the rapid return of positions on certain sections of the front, may affect the negotiating positions of the parties. According to some experts, if Ukraine maintains the pace and receives stable support from the West, this may change the balance at the negotiating table and force Moscow to reconsider its calculations.
Carrie Filippetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition think tank, believes that recent events on the frontline demonstrate the vulnerability of the Russian military machine. She emphasizes that the dynamics of hostilities often directly affect diplomacy, and successes on the battlefield can become an argument in negotiations.
The third scenario is related to the risk of escalation or Western fatigue. Former US State Department representative Heather Nauert emphasizes that the conflict goes far beyond the territorial issue and concerns the identity, freedom and future of Ukraine. In her opinion, any peace initiatives must be backed by real power and security guarantees.
Retired Lieutenant General Richard Newton also emphasizes that deterrence remains a key factor. According to him, peace is possible only when the price of aggression becomes unacceptable for Russia. Inconsistent or weak support for Ukraine could, on the contrary, prolong the war or create conditions for Moscow to strengthen its position.
Philip Breedlove warns that negotiations alone will not change the situation unless they are backed up by decisive action. He believes that without clear and long-term support, Ukraine could find itself in an even more difficult situation.
Thus, in the fifth year of the great war, further developments will depend on a combination of military dynamics, the level of international support, and the political will of the parties. Experts agree on one thing: the next phase of the conflict could become decisive not only for Ukraine, but also for the entire European security system.
