Among Ukrainian refugees abroad, 61% say their earnings are higher than they were before the full-scale invasion. Despite the overall reduction in benefits, about 71% of refugees still receive some level of support.
According to a study by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), as of the end of January 2024, 4.9 million Ukrainians were abroad due to the war. The CES identified four groups of refugees.
The first group is people from war zones (15%). These are people who were forced to leave their homes due to active fighting or occupation of territories. They are most often represented by women aged 25-49 who left with children and live in Poland. This group is also more likely to be employed or looking for work. People from war zones are less likely to return to Ukraine: only 13.8% plan to return, compared to 26.2% among all refugees. Their decision to return depends on the creation of conditions for this.
The second group is self-sufficient (30%). These people receive the least assistance from the host country and are more likely to pay for their own housing. They are also more likely to work remotely for Ukrainian companies or full-time in the host country. This group has a relatively higher income compared to the previous period. Most of them plan to return to Ukraine: 45.1% definitely plan to return, and 64.3% express a desire or plan to do so.
Older people (28%) This group mainly consists of people aged 50+, most of whom do not have higher education. Compared to other categories, they are less likely to receive social benefits, and those that do receive are not always enough even for basic needs. These people have deeper ties to Ukraine than representatives of other groups: 62.8% of them returned to Ukraine after leaving, compared to 46.4% among all refugees.
People in the process of integration (27%) These are Ukrainians who are actively settling in the country where they are staying. They are more likely than others to attend language courses and other educational institutions, and are often not yet working. Generous social support allows them to focus on their studies: the majority (67.3%) have housing from the state (compared to 37.8% among all refugees), 82.8% receive social benefits (compared to 39.5% among all refugees), and 85.2% attend language courses (compared to 35.9% among all). Many representatives of this group are staying in countries with generous social support. For example, their share in Germany is 40%. Ukrainians in this group are less connected to their homeland and less inclined to return: only 16.5% of them definitely plan to return.
The head of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, Vasyl Voskoboynik, notes that the end of the war and even the beginning of active reconstruction of the country do not guarantee rapid economic growth. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy for 2032, Ukraine's GDP will be $262 billion. For comparison, Poland's GDP last year was $700 billion, and in eight years it can be predicted that the volume of the Polish economy will reach $1 trillion. This means that in eight years Poland's GDP will be almost four times higher than Ukraine's GDP. This also confirms that in Poland, as well as in other countries, such as Germany, there will be better living conditions, higher salaries and a higher level of social protection than in Ukraine. As a result, Ukrainians will continue to go abroad in search of a better life.
Forecasts for the return of citizens to Ukraine are pessimistic. Even after the war ends, migration will not stop. Analysts from the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) have determined how many Ukrainians may leave abroad after the lifting of the ban on men traveling abroad. They calculated that an additional 87.6 thousand Ukrainians may leave abroad under the optimistic scenario, 115 thousand under the average scenario, and 154.9 thousand under the pessimistic scenario.
Vasyl Voskoboynik points out that to prevent further migration, Ukraine must address three main issues that are most important to its citizens. First, it is work that allows you to earn enough money. Second, it is housing, since the lack of housing prevents people from returning or settling in Ukraine. Third, it is infrastructure, including the education system. Vasyl Voskoboynik emphasizes that many parents consider the level of education before making a decision to return, since the education system in Ukraine has its shortcomings. This also stimulates the removal of children from the country.
According to Vasyl Voskoboynyk, the forecasts for return and migration are very pessimistic. After the war, about 30% of citizens will return home, but a new wave of migration is expected. The outflow of Ukrainians abroad will continue, and this will not stop in the near future.
