On February 20, the Hungarian government announced its intention to block the allocation of a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine until Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline are resumed. This statement was another episode of political pressure from Budapest, which, together with the Slovak government, had previously threatened to restrict exports of petroleum products and electricity to Ukraine.
In the wake of the Russian attack on the western Ukrainian oil hub in Brody and the damage to Druzhba infrastructure, the governments of Slovakia and Hungary simultaneously declared a state of emergency on the oil market. Former Slovak Economy Minister Karel Hirman called it a failure of an energy policy focused on Russian imports.
According to him, neither the Czech Republic, nor Poland, nor Austria were forced to introduce special regimes due to the Druzhba shutdown, as they had long diversified their supplies. The situation exposed a strategic miscalculation by the Hungarian company MOL, which owns oil refineries in Hungary and Bratislava's Slovnaft and continued to rely on Russian raw materials.
The Russian attack confirmed the risks of transit through Ukraine in wartime. At the same time, the cessation of supplies led to a temporary restriction on the export of petroleum products, including to Ukraine. However, as Hirman notes, this will not be critical for Kyiv - the volumes can be replaced from other sources. Instead, MOL risks losing markets and suffering financial losses, which will also affect tax revenues in Slovakia and Hungary.
The key was to confirm the existence of an alternative route. The Croatian terminal on the island of Krk and the Adria pipeline, after modernization, have sufficient capacity to supply both MOL refineries. Moreover, Slovnaft management has already announced the purchase of oil tankers from various suppliers, which should arrive at the end of March. Until then, the plant will operate in a limited mode, using state reserves.
Despite this, Budapest and Bratislava continue to insist on the need to restore supplies of Russian oil and even criticize Croatia. At the same time, simultaneous statements about the alleged insufficient capacity of the Adria and a request to allow the transit of Russian tanker oil seem contradictory.
Separately, questions arise about the communication surrounding the attack on Brody itself. For more than two weeks, official structures were silent about the fact of damage and the stoppage of transportation. Subsequently, Fico and Orban began to accuse Ukraine of an allegedly deliberate reluctance to resume pumping, as well as questioning the nature of the damage.
At the same time, the shutdown of Druzhba means the cessation of not only Russian but also Ukrainian oil supplies to MOL plants, which began in late autumn in response to attacks on Ukrainian refineries. Thus, the company has lost both sources of raw materials.
Against this background, statements about a possible cessation of electricity or gas exports to Ukraine look not only political, but also economically disadvantageous for Slovakia and Hungary themselves, since a significant part of the operations are carried out by private companies that receive income from transit.
The crisis surrounding Druzhba has shown that the claims that Russian oil is the only alternative no longer stand up to criticism. The issue is no longer one of technical capabilities, but of political choice.
