The proposed mobilization bill has become the center of debate as more men evade the draft and there are calls to demobilize exhausted soldiers.
When Russian troops and tanks invaded Ukraine in February 2022, tens of thousands of Ukrainians, in a surge of patriotic fervor, rushed to serve in the army. The influx of soldiers who dutifully responded to the draft or signed up as volunteers helped repel Russia’s first attack and thwart the Kremlin’s plans to decapitate the Ukrainian government.
But after nearly two years of bloody fighting, and with Ukraine once again in need of fresh troops to repel a new Russian offensive, military leaders can no longer rely on enthusiasm alone. More men are avoiding military service, and calls have grown for the demobilization of exhausted veterans.
The change in sentiment is particularly visible in the heated debate surrounding a new mobilization , which could lead to the conscription of up to 500,000 soldiers. The bill was introduced in parliament last month but was quickly withdrawn for revision.
The bill has catalyzed public discontent with the military recruitment process, which has been condemned as corrupt and increasingly aggressive. Many lawmakers argue that some of its provisions, such as a ban on draft dodgers buying real estate, could violate human rights.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seems reluctant to take responsibility for a large-scale conscription, instead asking his government and military to provide more arguments in support of the move. “I haven’t seen enough clear details to say that we need to mobilize ‘half a million’ people,” he said in a recent interview with Channel 4, a British broadcaster.
The military suggested that the mass mobilization was a challenge for the civilian government, a response that could exacerbate the simmering tensions between Mr. Zelensky and his top commander, Valery Zaluzhny. In the fall, the Ukrainian president rebuked General Zaluzhny when he declared that the war was at a stalemate.
“This is a hot potato,” said Petro Burkovsky, head of the Ukrainian think tank Democratic Initiatives.
The problem of raising enough soldiers is just one of many facing Ukraine as foreign military and financial aid becomes increasingly difficult to obtain, threatening to weaken Kyiv's ability to hold the front lines and support its economy.
The need to bolster Ukraine’s armed forces has been evident for months. While Kyiv has kept its casualty figures secret, US officials this summer put the number at nearly 70,000 dead and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
Russian losses, American officials say, were nearly twice as high—the result of sending waves of troops in bloody assaults to capture cities, regardless of the human cost. But Russia has a much larger population, and it has swelled its ranks with tens of thousands of prisoners.
On the contrary, Ukraine's efforts to rebuild its armed forces have lagged behind.
Soldiers on the front lines said they had noticed a steady decline in the quality of new recruits. Many are older, recovering from years-old injuries and unmotivated to fight. More men are also trying to avoid the draft by fleeing the country or hiding at home. Desertion, said one Ukrainian soldier stationed in the east, is also becoming a problem.
This has prompted military recruiters to adopt more aggressive tactics, forcing men to draft stations, detaining them, sometimes illegally, and forcing them to enlist. Lawyers and activists have spoken out, but there is no sign of change. Many Ukrainians compare recruiters to “human kidnappers.”
General Zaluzhny said in an essay in November that the recruitment process needed to be reviewed “to build up our reserves.” But he and other officials offered little alternative to large-scale mobilization.
Mr. Zelensky said his army chiefs had asked him to mobilize between 450,000 and 500,000 men. “This is a significant number,” he said last month, adding that a plan needed to be drawn up before he made a decision.
Experts say that is the main goal of the draft bill, which does not specify how much more should be added. It would lower the draft age to 25 from 27, limit deferrals for minor disabilities and limit the ability of draft dodgers to get loans or buy real estate. It also gives local governments greater responsibility for conscription.
Viktor Kevlyuk, a retired Ukrainian colonel who led mobilization in western Ukraine from 2014 to 2018, said the bill is “specifically aimed” at facilitating the conscription of hundreds of thousands.
“The state takes a firm position on how quickly it can provide its defense forces with this number of personnel,” Mr. Kevlyuk said.
But many lawmakers, including from Mr. Zelensky’s party, have expressed concern about the measures, which target the disabled and draft dodgers. They also say that relying on local authorities could exacerbate the problems. Regional recruitment centers have been plagued by corruption, with officers taking bribes to allow men to evade the draft.
"In general, this made this bill unacceptable in its form," said Oleksiy Honcharenko, a People's Deputy from the opposition party "European Solidarity".
After several days of debate this month, lawmakers sent the bill back for revisions.
“I clearly understand that the task of the military is to achieve success on the front,” Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk recently told Ukrainian media. “However, we need to work together to regulate such important and sensitive processes as mobilization.”
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said the government was already working on finalizing the law. He expressed disappointment with the lawmakers' decision, saying the mobilization had been "politicized and slowed down.".
Mr. Honcharenko noted that a broader discussion is needed on Ukraine’s military strategy. He said no one had clearly explained why it was necessary to call up half a million people now, which had confused civilians.
Mr. Burkovsky, a political analyst, said that Ukrainian authorities failed to “plan the pace of recruitment, training and replenishment of troops” in the first year of the war, forcing them to rush through the conscription process without addressing the underlying problems it was causing in Ukrainian civil society.
The bill, for example, leaves open the possibility of demobilizing troops after three years of service. But relatives of men who have fought since the start of the war say that is too long and that they should be replaced now. In recent weeks, protests have been growing in Ukrainian cities calling for immediate demobilization, a rare form of public criticism during the war.
Mr. Zelensky also emphasized the cost of mobilization to Ukraine's declining economy
The conscription means fewer taxpayers cover a larger army payroll. Last month, Mr. Zelensky said that mobilizing more than 450,000 people would cost 500 billion Ukrainian hryvnias, about $13 billion, as continued Western financial aid remains in doubt.
“Where will we get the money?” Mr. Zelensky asked.
