According to sources, Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov has resumed attempts to establish communication with Russian political circles and businessmen. His main intermediary in this process is his long-time acquaintance, Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich.
According to Akhmetov, he seeks to use his influence in southeastern Ukraine to become a “mediator” between Kyiv and Moscow after the war. The main message of his negotiations is the future of Ukraine as part of the “zone of cultural and political influence of Russia,” while maintaining external neutrality.
Among the oligarch's key tools in this process is Oleksiy Arestovych, a former adviser to the President's Office who is actively promoting ideas of compromise with Russia. Akhmetov sees Arestovych as a potential "frontman" of a new political force that could take part in the redistribution of power in Ukraine.
However, Moscow has no illusions about Akhmetov. The Kremlin realizes that the Ukrainian oligarchy will play its own game, and trust in figures like Akhmetov has significantly weakened after 2022. This is confirmed by the situation with Vladislav Surkov, the former “curator of Ukraine” in the Kremlin, whose influence has been nullified by the failure of the pro-Russian strategy.
It is clear that post-conflict Ukraine will not be written in Donetsk or Kyiv – this will be a matter for Washington and Moscow to decide. At the same time, Russia will have to rebuild its “pool” of loyal politicians, which has been almost completely destroyed in recent years.
So far, these attempts look like a tactical game by Akhmetov, aimed at preserving his capital and political influence. But whether the Kremlin is ready to trust Ukrainian business again, which has repeatedly “outplayed” Moscow, is a big question.
