American aid to Ukraine, what weapons are transferred and how it changes the course of hostilities

The United States continues to be Ukraine's main partner in providing military aid, which is becoming a decisive factor in the 2024 summer campaign.

Recent reports show that Washington is actively sending equipment to the Ukrainian army that has a major impact on frontline operations. For example, the Swiss mass media report that the American company that manufactures missiles for the PATRIOT anti-aircraft missile systems gave priority to deliveries to Ukraine, which led to a delay in concluding a contract with Switzerland.

Switzerland intends to deploy the latest F-35 fighter jets and purchase 75 MSE missiles for its Patriot systems, but they face difficulties due to American priorities in Ukraine. According to information, the contract between Switzerland and the United States provides for the possibility of postponement of execution periods without penalties in case of extraordinary circumstances or national security challenges affecting the interests of the United States.

This decision shows Washington's priority in providing anti-missile defense for Ukraine before the onset of winter. American investment in the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has also increased, including significant contracts with companies such as UAE, Northrop Grumman and Rheinmetall.

The US decision to redirect missiles and radar launchers to Ukraine could affect contracts with other countries such as Morocco, Poland, Romania, Switzerland and Sweden. For example, Romania plans to transfer one of its combat-ready PATRIOT batteries to Ukraine, and the Netherlands is considering the possibility of supplying another battery in cooperation with another country.

The reports also testify to the coordination of actions between countries aimed at supporting Ukraine in conditions of growing geopolitical tension.

Cooperation with the United States is logical, since only the American company Lockheed Martin produces MSE missiles at its factories, with a capacity of 500 to 650 interceptor missiles per year. This allows them to ensure sufficient supplies of systems capable of eliminating threats from "Daggers" and "Iskanders".

Also, none of the allies can transfer launchers without the prior consent of the US State Department, since these installations will not be able to function without the necessary components. Switzerland's plans to acquire 75 MSE missiles by 2030 and 208 by 2026 for Poland indicate the availability of today's stockpile of PATRIOT missiles in Europe.

Even despite the costs (for example, the contract for missiles for the Poles is estimated at several billion dollars), arming the Patriot batteries, which have already been transferred or are planned to be transferred to Ukraine, will be a difficult task.

In total, we are talking about eight batteries - three from Germany, two from the Netherlands, two from the United States and one from Romania. COMLOG, a joint venture with Raytheon and Europe's MBDA, maintains MSE interceptor missiles and manufactures GEM-T missiles aimed at destroying small ballistics, but specifically targeting aircraft.

The production rate on both continents is approximately 240 GEM-T missiles per year, with a plan to increase to 410 units by 2027. These volumes are enough to acquire almost only one and a half dozen PATRIOT batteries with eight launchers.

Thus, US and other stockpiles of Patriots, “palliative” missiles (including Western missiles specifically designed for Soviet launchers used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, air-to-air missiles or ship-based missiles such as the RIM-7 Sea Sparrow, post-Soviet Buk and S-300 missiles, HAWK missiles, which are effectively used against Russian drones and cruise missiles, as well as Cheetah installations from Jordan) are paid for by American taxpayers.

This is necessary to ensure the air defense of Ukraine, as already mentioned, it is a priority for Washington, since it will help to destroy reconnaissance and attack drones, as well as to keep Russian aircraft further away from the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and make it impossible for them to use the "cast iron" projectile of FABs and KABs.

After the Dragonfly operation in October 2023, which covered the Luhansk and Berdyan airfields, the level of American supplies of ammunition to Ukraine increased from dozens to hundreds of missiles. This indicates a significant amount of use of these systems by Ukrainian troops.

The main targets of the attacks include Russian S-300/400 complexes, headquarters and command posts, warehouses, radar stations, airfields and infrastructure of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. The use of missiles of this scale in Ukraine is necessary because Russia is not Iraq, where 55 thousand shells and 407 ATACMS missiles were enough to suppress the defense.

At present, the production of modernized ATACMS TACMS 2000 missiles with a range of up to 300 km has been resumed in Lockheed Martin workshops, which provides the US industry with a ten-year advance guarantee on production. This gives the Armed Forces of Ukraine the opportunity to attack Russian batteries from a long distance, knock out long-range complexes, as well as destroy ferry crossings and sink ships, which is an effective "long arm" not only against the Russians.

Ukrainian forces receive other types of ammunition, including 155 mm and 105 mm rounds, special mines, armor-piercing cluster munitions, and rockets for HIMARS systems, including the new GMLRS M30A1 air-detonated. Also supplied are anti-tank mines, TOW-2 and Javelin missile systems, as well as heavy infantry weapons.

These supplies help the Ukrainian army to contain the Russian offensive in various parts of the front, in particular in Serebryansk forestry, Terniv in Donetsk region, Vovchansk in Kharkiv region, Krasnohorivka and during the withdrawal to the line Karlivka-Novoselyvka.

Thanks to these supplies from North Korea, the Russian army cannot resume the scale of the first days of the invasion, when they released 40,000 shells per day. Currently, the maximum possible volume of Russian artillery is limited to 15 thousand shells per day, which is much less.

The Ukrainian army continues to strengthen its defense capabilities, and these billions of dollars invested in its military-industrial complex and arms supplies are aimed at preparing for long-term challenges.

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