The numerical advantage of Russia over Ukraine may begin to decrease by the end of this year, according to American military expert Michael Kofman.
In an interview with the Intelligencer, Kofman noted that despite the pressure Russia is exerting on Ukraine, its forces are severely depleted and face serious limitations. "Russia's advantage on the battlefield is likely to begin to diminish as we approach winter and beyond into 2025," said Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Russia.
Despite this, Kofman emphasized that Russia will not run out of resources in the near future, but the pace of its offensive operations will slow down significantly. This may give Ukraine hope, as the Russian advance in the east remains slow and accompanied by heavy losses of manpower and equipment.
One of the reasons for this is that Russia increasingly relies on outdated Soviet equipment, which has a limited supply. "Russia is using the remnants of its Soviet legacy, but the rate of production of new equipment does not match the losses on the battlefield," Kofman said. This forces Russian forces to change tactics to minimize casualties, but at the same time makes it difficult to achieve significant breakthroughs.
In addition, Russia faces problems in recruiting new soldiers. The high bonuses offered by the Kremlin to new recruits testify to the tension in this issue. For example, in July Russia advertised payments commensurate with US military salaries, which is anomalous compared to the average salary in the country.
British intelligence also reported high levels of Russian casualties, estimating that Russia would lose up to 1,000 soldiers a day during the winter. Despite the activity in the east, the situation remains difficult for Russian troops.
The hostilities have serious consequences not only for the situation at the front, but also for the Russian economy. The country's budget is largely devoted to military spending, which accounts for about 40% of total spending. Although Russia's economy showed growth in 2023, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Some analysts believe that if production slows, the defense sector will no longer be able to support the economy, which could lead to a recession.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is developing its own defense industry, building missiles, artillery and drones, helping to counter Russian pressure on the front.
