Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn warns of a possible rapid appreciation of the American currency by the end of the year. According to him, under certain conditions, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 44–45 hryvnias. The expert stated this in his Facebook post.
Shevchyshyn notes that the key risk factor is uncertainty with international support, in particular with the reparations loan. According to his assessment, a change in the external financing model due to delays or corrections in the terms of assistance may force the National Bank to sharply reduce currency interventions. In this case, the regulator will be forced to save reserves, which will create the prerequisites for accelerated devaluation.
The analyst notes that the end of November traditionally creates additional pressure on the hryvnia. Businesses are more active in buying currency for imports, and in the period between tax payments, the supply on the market decreases. Combined with political uncertainty and tense negotiations on a peace agreement, this intensifies fluctuations in the currency market.
Shevchyshyn considers it unlikely that Ukraine will receive a reparations loan, which, in his opinion, will become the basis for revising budget expenditures for the coming years and changing monetary policy parameters.
Against this background, according to the analyst's forecast, the cash dollar may rise to 42.75–43 hryvnias this week. The euro, he said, will maintain a tendency towards smooth growth: the official NBU exchange rate will remain around 48.5 hryvnias, and the cash rate will be within 48.75–49 hryvnias.
The National Bank set a new historical high the day before: the official dollar exchange rate on November 25 is 42.37 hryvnias. Another financial analyst, Oleksiy Kozyrev, notes that the market is influenced by seasonal factors — primarily the activity of the sales period and the country's constant need to import energy resources.
