Avdiivka is one of the most tense points on the front. For Ukraine, this is an important strategic position, which they call the "gateway to Donetsk", while for Russian troops, it is a way to further occupy the Donetsk region. According to the latest reports, the third separate assault brigade (OShBr) carried out an urgent redeployment to the Avdiyivka region to strengthen the defense of Ukrainian troops. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, and the Minister of Defense, Rustem Umyerov, visited the military units that maintain the defense in the Avdiyiv and Kupyan directions to assess the situation.
Syrsky emphasized that the situation is "extremely difficult and tense". "The Russian occupiers are intensifying their efforts and have a numerical advantage in terms of personnel. They do not stop before losses and continue to use the tactics of "meat assaults", he emphasized.
According to intelligence, the Russian army is attacking Avdiivka from the north, south and east, trying to cross the last lines of support for the armed forces. "The most dangerous direction is Pervomaiske and Nevelske. Our troops face attacks both during the day and at night. The enemy operates in small groups, using the tactics of coming from different directions," said the chief of artillery of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Lt. Col. Vitaly Pidvysotskyi.
To understand how events may develop in the near future in the Avdiiv direction and what impact this will have on the subsequent military campaign, DW turned to military analysts from Germany, Austria and Great Britain. Avdiyivka, which has been on the front line of the war in eastern Ukraine since 2014, has great strategic importance and political symbolism. About 30,000 residents once lived here, but now only about 900 people remain. The city was once famous as a center of heavy industry, in particular thanks to the coke plant. Today, it has become the largest Ukrainian "outpost" in the occupied territories of the Donetsk region, known as the "gateway to Donetsk" and, in fact, its surroundings.
Thus, control over this settlement has both strategic and symbolic significance for both sides of the conflict and can serve as a springboard for the further advance of both armies. "For Russia, capturing Avdiivka is an opportunity to demonstrate that it is capable of expanding its territories. For Ukraine, this is a matter of preserving cities and assigning losses to the Russian side," commented Niko Lange, an expert at the Munich Security Conference.
"Key highways run nearby," recalls Marina Miron, a military expert from King's College London. "This means that it will be easier for the Russians to carry out an offensive on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The first part of the puzzle is Bakhmut, which they can use as a bridgehead, and the second would then be Avdiivka, from which they can advance further west," adds Miron. She also notes that a breakthrough in the defense of one of the most fortified Ukrainian cities will have a "very symbolic" meaning.
Despite the superiority of the forces of the Russian army, the Armed Forces continue to firmly defend Avdiivka, strengthening their positions with new forces. Some observers see parallels with the defense of Bakhmut, which was even called a "fortress". The difference is that the forces of the Russian Federation have enough resources to carry out "meat assaults", while the Ukrainian troops rely more and more on the operation of drones and the economy of artillery ammunition.
Markus Reisner, a military historian, an officer of the General Staff of the Austrian Army and the head of one of the departments of the Military Academy in Vienna, reminds that the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi maintained the defense of Bakhmut in order to exhaust the offensive potential of the enemy and prevent him from preparing for a large-scale offensive.
The situation with Avdiivka now resembles the defense of Bakhmut, the Austrian military believes. However, taking into account the experience of the defense of Bakhmut, which ended with the retreat of Ukrainian troops, Reisner believes that it would be more appropriate to conserve resources and, perhaps, retreat to more advantageous positions for defense.
However, the expert agrees that the commander-in-chief may be given the political task of maintaining and defending this territory. "I assume that the decision to defend Avdiivka instead of shortening the front line may be part of the conflict between General Zaluzhnyi and President Zelenskyi, as a result of which General Syrskyi became the commander-in-chief," adds Niko Lange.
An analysis by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War shows that the frontline has hardly undergone any significant changes in recent weeks and months. However, the battles for control of Avdiivka may gain momentum in the coming days and weeks, and their outcome will affect further transformations on the front line. "Currently, the situation for the Ukrainian forces does not look optimistic, as the Russian troops almost managed to surround the city and hold positions on the southern outskirts," Maryna Miron notes. She adds that the length of time the Ukrainian troops will hold their positions, taking into account the shortage of artillery ammunition, remains in question.
On February 15, the strategic communications coordinator of the National Security Council of the White House, John Kirby, warned about the risk of capturing Avdiyivka due to the lack of sufficient weapons by Ukrainian defenders. All the experts interviewed by DW point to "shell hunger" as the main risk factor for the city's defense. Marcus Reisner even drew parallels with the First World War, when in 1915 the British army did not have enough ammunition, and it was not possible to ramp up production immediately. "Currently, it can be said that this is a war of attrition. And this means that the same weapons systems that were used even in the First and Second World Wars are used on the battlefield. This is artillery. Thus, artillery is currently one of the decisive weapons systems," says Reisner.
A misjudgment of the timeline for ramping up production has led to the current ammunition shortage, agrees European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) military expert Gustav Gressel. He notes that the European Union will not have time to deliver ammunition to Ukraine on time and in the planned volume, but predicts an improvement in the situation from the summer and until the end of the year.
"Last year, it was assumed that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be successful, and therefore negotiations and a cease-fire would begin, which did not happen," Gressel explains the reasons for the delays in concluding contracts for the production of ammunition until last September.
Thus, the next days and weeks of waiting for the replenishment of artillery shells will be the most exhausting for the Ukrainian army. It is also necessary to take into account political risks, in particular those related to the US presidential elections. "At the moment it is very difficult to talk about long-term strategies," comments Nico Lange. "However, I believe that this will be a very difficult year for Ukraine both in the south and in the east," he adds.
