Avdiivka is one of the most tense points on the front. For Ukraine, it is an important strategic position, which they call the “gateway to Donetsk”, while for Russian troops it is a path to further occupation of the Donetsk region. According to the latest reports, the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (OSBr) has urgently redeployed to the Avdiivka area to strengthen the defense of Ukrainian troops. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov visited military units holding defenses in the Avdiivka and Kupyansk directions to assess the situation.
Syrsky stressed that the situation is “extremely complex and tense.” “The Russian occupiers are stepping up their efforts and have a numerical advantage in personnel. They do not stop at losses and continue to use the tactics of “meat assaults,” he emphasized.
According to intelligence, the Russian army is attacking Avdiivka from the north, south and east, trying to cut off the last supply routes for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “The most dangerous direction is Pervomaiske and Nevelske. Our troops are facing attacks both day and night. The enemy is operating in small groups, using tactics of entering from different directions,” said Lieutenant Colonel Vitaliy Pidvysotsky, chief of artillery of the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
To understand how events may develop in the near future in the Avdiivka direction and what impact this will have on the further military campaign, DW turned to military analysts from Germany, Austria and the UK. Avdiivka, which has been on the front line of the war in eastern Ukraine since 2014, has great strategic importance and political symbolism. Once home to about 30,000 residents, now only about 900 people remain. The city was once famous as a center of heavy industry, in particular thanks to the coke plant. Today it has become the largest Ukrainian “outpost” in the occupied territories of the Donetsk region, known as the “gateway to Donetsk” and, in fact, its surroundings.
Thus, control over this settlement has both strategic and symbolic significance for both sides of the conflict and can serve as a springboard for further advancement of both armies. “For Russia, the capture of Avdiivka is an opportunity to demonstrate that it is capable of expanding its territories. For Ukraine, it is a matter of preserving the cities and imposing losses on the Russian side,” comments Nico Lange, an expert at the Munich Security Conference.
“Key highways are nearby,” says Maryna Miron, a military expert at King’s College London. “This means it will be easier for the Russians to launch an offensive on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The first piece of the puzzle is Bakhmut, which they can use as a bridgehead, and the second would then be Avdiivka, from which they can advance further west,” Miron adds. She also notes that a breakthrough in the defense of one of the most fortified Ukrainian cities would have “very symbolic” significance.
Despite the superiority of the Russian army, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to firmly defend Avdiivka, reinforcing their positions with new forces. Some observers see parallels with the defense of Bakhmut, which was even called a “fortress”. The difference is that the Russian forces have enough resources to conduct “meat assaults”, while the Ukrainian troops increasingly rely on the work of drones and the economy of artillery ammunition.
Military historian, officer of the General Staff of the Austrian Army and head of one of the departments of the Military Academy in Vienna, Markus Reisner, recalls that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, held the defense of Bakhmut in order to exhaust the enemy's offensive potential and prevent it from preparing for a large-scale offensive.
The situation with Avdiivka now resembles the defense of Bakhmut, the Austrian military believes. However, given the experience of the defense of Bakhmut, which ended with the retreat of Ukrainian troops, Reisner believes that it would be more expedient to conserve resources and, perhaps, retreat to more advantageous positions for defense.
However, the expert agrees that the commander-in-chief may have a political task of holding and defending this territory. “I suggest that the decision to defend Avdiivka instead of shortening the front line may be part of the conflict between General Zaluzhny and President Zelensky, as a result of which General Syrsky became commander-in-chief,” adds Nico Lange.
Analysis by the Institute for the Study of War in Washington shows that the front line has hardly changed significantly in recent weeks and months. However, the battles for control of Avdiivka may gain momentum in the coming days and weeks, and their outcome will affect further transformations on the front line. “At this point, the situation for Ukrainian forces does not look optimistic, since Russian troops have almost managed to surround the city and hold positions on the southern outskirts,” notes Maryna Miron. She adds that the duration of holding positions by Ukrainian forces, taking into account the shortage of artillery ammunition, remains in question.
On February 15, John Kirby, the White House National Security Council's strategic communications coordinator, warned of the risk of Avdiivka being captured due to the lack of sufficient weapons by Ukrainian defenders. All experts interviewed by DW point to the “shell famine” as the main risk factor for the city's defense. Marcus Reisner even drew parallels with World War I, when in 1915 the British troops lacked ammunition, and it took a long time to ramp up production. “At the moment, we can say that this is a war of attrition. And this means that the same weapons systems are being used on the battlefield that were used even in the First and Second World Wars. This is artillery. Thus, artillery is currently one of the decisive weapons systems,” Reisner notes.
A miscalculation of the timing of the ramp-up of production has led to the current ammunition shortage, agrees Gustav Gressel, a military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). He notes that the European Union will not have time to deliver ammunition to Ukraine on time and in the planned volume, but predicts an improvement in the situation from the summer until the end of the year.
“Last year, it was assumed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive would be successful, and then negotiations and a ceasefire would begin, which did not happen,” Gressel explains the reasons for the delays in concluding contracts for the production of ammunition until last September.
Thus, the next days and weeks of waiting for replenishment of artillery supplies will be the most exhausting for the Ukrainian army. It is also necessary to take into account political risks, in particular those related to the US presidential elections. “It is very difficult to talk about long-term strategies at the moment,” comments Nico Lange. “However, I believe that this will be a very difficult year for Ukraine, both in the south and in the east,” he adds.
