The year 2023 in Ukraine ends under the shadow of unfulfilled hopes, accompanied by disturbing forebodings of the next year. Among them, the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive stands out, but it is also worth noting a number of less visible, but significant victories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) on the battlefield. These successes became especially valuable, considering their achievements in the absence of superiority in air and equipment.
At the beginning of 2023, Ukraine entered a year with the origins of limited optimism caused by the successful operations to liberate Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson. The military-political leadership of Ukraine and its Western allies began to announce a major counteroffensive and to describe in detail plans to throw out the occupying forces.
However, the reality turned out to be harsher when the offensive of the Armed Forces on the southern front crashed into the powerful defensive lines of the Russian forces. The events were further complicated by a man-made disaster - the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP dam. According to expert opinion, this incident may have been aimed at hindering the advance of Ukrainian troops and was committed by the Russian military.
During a year of active hostilities, none of the sides managed to break through the enemy's defense lines. Noting this, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhnyi was forced to announce the transition to "positional warfare" at the end of autumn.
However, both sides can count at least three successful and as many unsuccessful operations at the front this year.
Victory of Ukraine
-
- Unblocking the Black Sea: The operation to block territorial waters in the Black Sea, launched by the Russian Federation weeks before a full-scale invasion in February 2022, has led to serious difficulties. Ports and ships, both commercial and military, have been hit by Russian missiles and drones, halting seaborne exports, including grain, from Ukraine. In July 2022, it was possible to unblock the Black Sea by creating a "safe corridor" with the mediation of the UN and Turkey. But this agreement lasted only a year, and in July 2023 the Russian authorities decided to withdraw from it, threatening to attack all ships going to Ukrainian ports. Ukraine decided to deal with this threat on its own. Naval drones have carried out successful strikes on Russian ships and the Black Sea Fleet's missile headquarters in Sevastopol, forcing the Kremlin to scale back its ambitions in the region. At the end of the year, the positive results of these measures became obvious. From satellite images presented in December, it can be seen that most of Russia's ships capable of carrying Kalibr missiles have been evacuated from Crimea to Novorossiysk. This made it possible to unblock Ukraine's sea exports. In four months, 302 ships passed through this safe corridor, exporting approximately 10 tons of products. Although these indicators have not yet reached the pre-war level, they indicate the final end of the "total dominance of the Russian fleet" in the Black Sea, as President Zelenskyi emphasized.
- The defeat of the Russian troops at Ugledar and the liberation of Robotyny and Klishchiivka: In the last days of January and the beginning of February, the Russian army, reacting to the painful losses in Kharkiv and Kherson regions, launched vigorous offensive operations. Despite the successful actions near Bakhmut and Soledar, in the southwest of Donetsk region, not far from the town of Vugledar, Russian troops suffered a heavy defeat. Ukrainian forces, focused in the settlement itself, destroyed several enemy tank columns. Russian troops, mainly consisting of marines of the Pacific Fleet, tried to break into the city through open terrain, but fell victim to the fire of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or fell into minefields. In January, the marines of the Russian Federation suffered significant losses and appealed to the governor of the Primorsky Krai, where the 155th brigade is based, with a statement about heavy losses. Before spring, the Russian attacks lost their power, and Ukraine, according to The New York Times, won "the biggest tank battle" of this conflict. Two more important victories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were obtained during the counteroffensive. In the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, it was possible to stop the enemy's Vremiyiv salient near Velika Novosilka and break through the first line of Russian defensive fortifications near Robotyny. Despite the fact that these operations required significant efforts and resources of the Armed Forces, not allowing to extend the success to the occupied Berdyansk and Melitopol, it was possible to liberate the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka near Bakhmut. Russian troops found themselves in a difficult situation, threatening to lose the logistical routes between Bakhmut and Horlivka. At the end of the year, Russian troops decided to go on the offensive in these directions, trying to balance the modest but important successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- The stability of the bridgehead in the Kherson region: In mid-November, the Ukrainian authorities confirmed the long-awaited news that was already circulating in Russian and Ukrainian social networks - the Armed Forces of Ukraine successfully captured the bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region. The information that the Ukrainian military periodically crossed the Dnipro and created positions on the bank occupied by the Russians appeared more than once. However, these mostly looked like short-term sabotage or reconnaissance operations. Creating such a tactical bridgehead is a step to a completely different level. Forcing a water obstacle and seizing positions on the enemy shore is considered one of the most difficult military operations, and this becomes even more important considering the conditions in which the Ukrainian troops achieved this achievement: without air cover, without a powerful river fleet, without an advantage in technology and the absence of pontoons crossing The intense circumstances in which this bridgehead near the village of Krynka is maintained raise the question of the expediency of its maintenance. Ukrainian fighters face daily attacks from Russian aircraft, artillery and flame-throwing systems. Vladimir Putin characterizes this bridgehead as a "trap" for Ukrainians, while the Western media express an opinion about the "self-destructive decisions" of the Ukrainian command. Despite this, Ukraine continues to maintain control over this limited territory on the banks of the Dnieper, waiting for the right moment to expand the bridgehead and advance deep into the occupied Kherson region.
Defeats of Ukraine
Failure of the counteroffensive: The fact that the Ukrainian counteroffensive did not achieve its goals is recognized by both the military and political leadership of Ukraine. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhnyi, noted that previous forecasts predicted a deep breakthrough from the Armed Forces and reaching the Azov coast. However, the real situation on the battlefield turned out to be significantly different.
"If we take as a basis the NATO textbooks and the mathematical calculations that we carried out during the planning of the counteroffensive, then 4 months, in fact, is not enough to achieve this goal - to reach Crimea, conduct operations in Crimea, return and go there and back again," - remarked the commander-in-chief.
Instead of a breakthrough of 80 km, the Ukrainian troops were only able to break through a salient of about 15-17 km near Robotyny. Opposing the second line of Russian defense near Tokmak, they did not manage to overcome it until the onset of autumn bad weather. The lack of ready reserves, lack of air superiority, lack of air defense equipment and special equipment for demining also contributed to the problems.
The shortcomings of the Ukrainian side included the lack of long-range weapons, and the cluster munitions received from the US arrived too late and in limited quantities.
Russian Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov, commenting on the rejection of the Ukrainian offensive, showed a map on which it was indicated that the plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided for simultaneous attacks from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It seems that this plan was adjusted by the Russian military, which in June blew up the Kakhovskaya HPP dam, flooding large areas of the Kherson region and postponing the possibility of forcing the Dnieper for several months.
Loss of Bakhmut: The events, which both sides nicknamed the "Bakhmut Meat Grinder", lasted almost 8 months and ended with the loss of the city. Already in the fall of 2022, mercenary detachments of the "Wagner" PMC approached the borders of Bakhmut.
In January, they found a weak point and broke through the Ukrainian defense in Soledar. This was the beginning of the decisive phase of the "Bakhmut massacre".
For almost 4 months, Ukrainian forces held the city, being semi-encircled. The Armed Forces were forced to use only one supply road, which remained under enemy fire.
In March and April, the "Wagnerians" broke into the residential quarters of Bakhmut, turning the war into an urban environment. The city was actually destroyed by constant artillery and air strikes of the Russian Federation.
In such conditions, Ukrainian troops gradually retreated to the western outskirts of the city. The leader of "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin announced the complete capture of Bakhmut on May 20.
The Ukrainian authorities have never acknowledged this, continuing to claim that some areas of the city remain under control. The loss of Bakhmut is recognized as a defeat for Ukraine, not only because of the loss of a strategic industrial city, but also because of doubts about the feasibility of prolonged defense.
According to the information of the Western media, the idea of holding the "Bakhmut fortress" until the end belonged to Zelensky, while Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi was against this decision.
The positive side in this situation can be that after the "Bakhmut meat grinder" and huge losses, the private military company "Wagner" practically ceased to exist. And 3 months after the battle, Dmytro Utkin, the commander of the Wagnerites, and Prigozhin, the owner of PMK, died in a mysterious plane crash.
Semi-encirclement of Avdiyivka: At the end of 2023, the Ukrainian garrison in the city of Avdiyivka will undergo extremely difficult tests, being in fact semi-encircled. The "corridor" for the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or the possible withdrawal of the garrison is limited to only 5-7 km.
The Russian army launched a powerful offensive on Avdiivka on October 10. Armored columns carried out attacks simultaneously from the eastern, southern and northern flanks, involving approximately 40-50 thousand soldiers, supported by artillery, armored vehicles and aviation.
The disadvantage is that the advance of Russian forces around Avdiivka cannot be considered rapid. For almost 2 months, they managed to advance only a few kilometers, cross the defensive line in the form of a railway line in the north and capture a part of the "Avdiivska promka" in the east.
According to Western experts, Russian troops captured approximately 11 sq. km of territory, and suffered losses of 13 thousand soldiers and hundreds of pieces of equipment. The Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka remains in difficult conditions, especially against the background of the almost complete destruction of the local coke chemical plant from daily shelling, the Russian army is approaching its territory.
The fighting for the village of Stepove in the northwest of Avdiyivka continues, and their results may determine the fate of the Ukrainian troops, who are in a risky position. The capture of this village by Russia could lead to the complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces and the cutting of their supply routes.
In the conditions of such an unfavorable situation, Ukrainian and international military experts are increasingly questioning the expediency of keeping Avdiivka at any cost. However, at the moment, official Kyiv claims that it has no intention of withdrawing from its territories.
