Constant military assistance from the United States is an important component of Ukraine's strategy in combating Russia's aggression. However, the latest statements about the possible reduction of assistance cause serious concerns about the stability of the situation at the front. According to The Wall Street Journal , Ukraine will be able to withstand the current pace of fighting until the summer of 2025 without new supplies, but may then face serious difficulties, in particular, lack of ammunition.
Also, Kyiv will not be able to use some of its most advanced weapons.
"The large supply of weapons that Baiden's administration has sent or concluded contracts for delivery in the last months of its reign should be allowed to continue to fight at least in the middle of the year (ie by June - ed.)
Ukrainian officials say it is a "worst scenario", and in this case, Ukraine will have to significantly increase their own military production and count on greater support from Europe.
“In general, Ukraine currently produces or finances about 55% of its military equipment. The US provides about 20%and Europe is 25%, ”one Western official said.
But some types of American weapons, such as modern air defense systems, ballistic missiles, navigation systems and long-range artillery, will be almost impossible to replace. Europe simply does not produce enough such systems - and in some cases it does not produce at all.
When these US deliveries are over, Ukraine's ability to strike long distances and protect the rear positions will be significantly reduced, officials and analysts warn.
“Theoretically, Europe can allocate as much money as the US, but I do not think it will be able to cover the full range of necessary weapons. In such critical categories as aircraft interception, there will be a shortage of shortage, ”Oscar Jonesson, a researcher of Swedish defense university, said.
Some experts also doubt whether Ukraine will retain access to SpaceX Starlink Satellite Internet, which was partially funded by the Pentagon.
"The question is not so much in help, but whether Trump will participate in the production of weapons for Ukraine," said Mikhail Samus, Director of the Center for New Geopolitics Research. "If not, it will be a serious blow to Ukraine and Europe."
