It became known that the state debt guaranteed by Ukraine exceeded 6 trillion hryvnias or 151.5 billion dollars. At the same time, the payments that we are obliged to pay in 2024 will amount to 25 billion U.S., according to the Ministry of Finance. In addition, the Ukrainian government needs to find 5 billion dollars to cover current military expenses, and by the end of the year another 5 billion dollars will be needed for the same needs. And this is without taking into account the still unforeseeable recession of the Ukrainian economy, which has already begun due to the new law on mobilization.
The increase in excise duties on tobacco, alcohol and oil products, which are currently being discussed at Bankova and which will be introduced to the parliament at the end of June - beginning of July, will not solve the problem. We will remind you that the rate of military duty will also be increased from 1.5 to 5%, and its payment will also be extended to private entrepreneurs. In addition, the VAT rate will be increased by 2-3%. The increase in the military levy rate will provide an additional 90-100 billion hryvnias per year (2.22-2.47 billion dollars), each percent before VAT will replenish the treasury by 40 billion hryvnias, which is equal to 988 million dollars (+3% before the VAT rate is equivalent to 120 billion hryvnias = 2.97 billion dollars).
The only real way out of this problem is debt restructuring. The terms of negotiations regarding the new restructuring, which Ukraine began in early spring, are still unclear, there are no guarantees of creditors' consent due to the deterioration of the economic situation in the country. By the way, if the agreement takes place, it will be the third after 2014: the first took place in 2015, the second in 2022. Thus, if the expectations of Ukraine and creditors do not coincide, we will have to pay with resources and territory.
