As a result of the ongoing war initiated by Russia, Ukrainian society and the state face a number of complex challenges, especially in the field of demography. One of the key aspects of these difficulties is the demographic situation in Ukraine, which arose during the conflict and will continue to affect the country after the cessation of hostilities.
For the past 10 years, war has been raging in Donbas, once the most densely populated region of Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to flee the region, and some cities have been devastated and devastated. The ongoing killings of Ukrainian citizens as a result of Russian aggression are also significantly affecting the demographic picture. The large number of emigrants forced to leave the country by the invasion also contributes to this challenge.
Even after the end of active hostilities, demographic problems for Ukraine will not cease. Doctor of Economics, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and Deputy Director for Scientific Work of the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research, Oleksandr Gladun, shared his beliefs about future difficulties.
According to him, the war unleashed by Russia seriously complicates the work of demographers, making many aspects difficult to change. Partially occupied territory, the lack of full registration of demographic events, and a large number of refugees abroad create significant difficulties in obtaining accurate demographic information.
Gladun emphasized that the current situation is also characterized by large-scale external migration. According to estimates by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 6 million people have become refugees, while experts indicate a similar number of internally displaced persons. This significantly affects demographic statistics, complicating the task of experts.
In its attempt to forecast the demographic situation in Ukraine, the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research took into account various difficulties. In particular, it was necessary to adjust population data, taking into account the length of the period since the last census in 2001, as well as to take into account the peculiarities of labor migration, which has become permanent.
Gladun pointed out that the war has its own characteristics in demographic processes, and only after its end can one hope for a more stable picture. The Institute's forecast covers the period until 2037, assuming that the war will end in late 2024 - in 2025.
Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography, emphasizes that his forecast for Ukraine is focused on the 1991 borders. According to his forecast, by the beginning of 2037, the population of Ukraine will decrease to approximately 30.5 million people, which means a rapid reduction of 10–12 million people over 15 years.
The main challenge for the country remains the rapid decline in population, which will continue after the war. In addition, population aging is becoming a serious issue, as the birth rate was low even before the war. This may trigger population aging processes, as a higher birth rate is needed to maintain a stable population.
Oleksandr Gladun emphasizes that changing the sex-age structure is another challenge. Ukraine already had a low birth rate before the war, and more children are needed to avoid a rapid population decline. However, currently 100 women give birth to only 116 children, which is half the number needed to maintain a stable population.
The problem even affects the higher education system, as the trend of decreasing school graduation rates leads to discussions about a possible reduction in higher education institutions.
Another serious challenge is post-war migration. Experts believe that the return of at least half of the 6.3 million people abroad would be a positive development. However, the duration of the war may affect counter-migration flows, making accurate forecasts difficult.
One of the key issues leading to the population decline is the low birth rate. There may be a compensatory increase in birth rates after the war, but experts do not predict a significant baby boom. We hope for a slight increase in birth rates within 2–3 years after the war, but the overall trends will depend on many factors.
The future of the occupied territories after the Russian aggression against Ukraine is in doubt due to the destruction of cities and important infrastructure. A particular problem is determining the prospects for the restoration of these territories and the economic structure after the end of hostilities.
However, the most pressing issue is the size and structure of the population in the occupied territories, which currently remains uncertain. It is noted that some of the population are foreigners, collaborators and members of illegal armed groups, who may be liquidated or emigrate. Therefore, the future of these territories will depend on many factors, including state policy and the duration of the war.
Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography, emphasizes that the number of people returning from abroad and those who have resettled in other regions of Ukraine will depend on many factors, such as the duration of the conflict and recovery policies. This includes issues of housing recovery, job creation, and infrastructure.
One of the key issues is the issue of border areas, where even after victory there may remain a threat from Russia. Thus, resolving these issues will require the cooperation of multiple state institutions and clear development plans to ensure the return and sustainable development of these territories.
Looking at the current situation in Ukraine, it turns out that labor shortages have already become a well-known problem, especially due to military events, when a significant part of the working-age population is in service or has emigrated. After the end of the conflict, this dynamic may change, but the real extent of the changes will become known only after the end of hostilities and the development of a clear plan for economic recovery.
Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography, Oleksandr Gladun, believes that in the event of a shortage of labor, the possibility of actively involving migrants is being considered. However, he warns of the difficulties of such an approach, especially given the adverse impact of mass migration on the socio-cultural and ethnic structure of the population.
Expressing his indignation at the possible over-recruitment of the labor force through migration, the expert notes that it is important to choose strategic approaches that will not create social or economic problems. He emphasizes that creating their own conditions for Ukrainians to make their return more attractive is a key element.
In particular, Oleksandr Gladun points to the need to restore housing and develop the domestic economy. He determines that stimulating return should occur through the creation of favorable conditions in Ukraine, and not only through financial payments. Such an approach will contribute to maintaining the efficiency and stability of Ukrainian society.
