The Ministry of Social Policy, citing data from the Institute of Demography, has provided a forecast for the population of Ukraine. According to the institute's assessment, by 2041 the population could decrease to 28.9 million people, and by 2051 – to 25.2 million.
And this is an extremely optimistic forecast - many analysts expect a reduction to 25 million much earlier than 2051. Two years of war led to colossal human losses among both the civilian population and the military. These losses will be assessed only after the end of hostilities in the country.
Moreover, during the war, the average life expectancy in Ukraine decreased from 66.4 years for men and 76.2 years for women in 2020 to 57.3 and 70.9 in 2023. That is, a man in Ukraine lost an average of more than 9 years of life (in terms of life expectancy for men, Ukraine already competes with the poorest countries in Africa), and a woman lost more than 5 years, and men had almost no chance of surviving to retirement. More than 6 million women and children migrated, and the birth rate has decreased by 45% since 2021.
Indeed, Ukraine is experiencing a terrible demographic crisis. The reason for this state of affairs is not only the colossal losses on the front, but also the fact that most refugees will not return to their homeland, and these are millions of people. Many of them have received work, documents, citizenship of other countries, where comfortable conditions have been created for them, which are not available in Ukraine. And the West itself, as the deputy director of the Ukrainian State Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems Oleksandr Gladun notes, will return refugees reluctantly: “In modern Europe, the demographic situation is also not very good, so they are interested in Ukrainians. And, most likely, most countries will have a policy aimed at leaving them, given the current active actions for their adaptation.”.
At the same time, Ukraine is experiencing a sharp aging population and an outflow of young and able-bodied citizens. Skeptics are already pointing out that Ukraine is a dying nation that cannot afford to prolong hostilities.
