Can the Russians attack Kyiv again?

The thesis about the “Russian city of Kyiv” continues to be periodically heard in the Russian media. However, as of the end of February 2024, there is no concentration of forces and the creation of strike groups for a new campaign against Kyiv.

Moreover, the beginning of the formation of such groups in Belarus or the Bryansk and Kursk regions of the Russian Federation will be immediately noticeable to intelligence .

The Russian army will no longer be able to achieve operational surprise like in February 2022, when Russian airborne assault columns reached the outskirts of Kyiv in a few days. But at the same time, experts say, it is necessary to prepare for everything.

So, could the Russian army try to capture Kyiv , and what factors might indicate preparations for this?

How the Russians attacked Kyiv in 2022

On February 24, 2022, the offensive of Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from the north on Kyiv was one of the priorities of the invasion.

The columns moved from several directions at once: Glukhiv-Konotop-Nizhyn, Sumy-Pryluky, Trostyanets-Hadyach.

But the main Russian strike forces were the group that entered from Belarus through the Chernobyl zone, as well as the group that attacked from the other side of the Dnieper - from Chernihiv to Brovary.

The advance on Kyiv was to be reinforced by a landing at Gostomel on the first day of the full-scale invasion and, probably, a similar landing at the airport in Vasylkiv, which the Russians failed to do.

An analysis by the British Royal Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI), whose authors also include the former commander of the Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces, Mykhailo Zabrodsky, states that “the northern axis was the main direction, the goal of which was to surround and capture Kyiv.”.

“To do this, the Russians formed two groups of troops, which were controlled from the command post of the Eastern Military District. One group was formed in the Gomel region of Belarus, it used the tactical sign “V” with the order to attack Kyiv along the right (west) bank of the Dnieper River. The second was formed in the Bryansk region of Russia, it had the tactical sign “O” with the order to surround Kyiv from the left (east) bank,” RUSI writes.

The authors add that the “Gomel” group was divided into units that were to cut off Kyiv’s communication routes from the west (such as the “Zhytomyr” and “Warsaw” routes), and units that were to enter the Ukrainian capital directly.

The number of both main groups is estimated at about 40 battalion tactical groups, or 25-35 thousand fighters.

This uncertainty in the figures can be explained by the fact that Russian BTGs had different numbers of fighters (from 400 to 800) and were equipped with different equipment and weapons.

RUSI, citing the “synchronization matrix of the 1st Tank Army captured near Kyiv in March 2022,” claims that the Russians expected to complete all their main combat missions within ten days of the invasion, after which the only thing left to do was to clear out the remaining remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and “nationalist units.”.

And the full annexation of Ukraine should be completed by August 2022.

The calculations of “ten days” do not look so fantastic, considering that in southern Ukraine the Russian army managed to capture the land corridor to Crimea and surround Mariupol in just a week.

However, all the Russian plans for the first offensive on Kyiv were thwarted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the actions of maneuverable infantry units, the effective work of intelligence and artillery, as well as the fact that Ukrainian air defense was able to resist and restore coordinated work after the first days of the major invasion.

“Unsuccessful attempts to attack Kyiv, in which enemy troops were systematically destroyed in all directions, continued until March 19, when units of the Russian Armed Forces went on the defensive and began to dig in. Subsequently, as a result of the Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattack, the remnants of Russian units left the territory of the Kyiv region by the beginning of April,” says an analytical report from the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, which was received by BBC News Ukraine.

New offensive

Both Russian "military leaders" and politicians of various levels periodically speak about the ambition to "capture Kyiv.".

In his interview, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev shared his thoughts on where Russia should “stop”.

“Probably, it should be Kyiv too. If not now, then after some time. For two reasons. Kyiv is a Russian city. And from there comes the threat to the existence of the Russian Federation,” said the former prime minister and president of Russia.

But the military says there is currently no real sign of Russian preparations for the "campaign on Kyiv.".

In January, the former commander of the operational-strategic group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “North” Serhiy Nayev wrote that in the area of ​​his responsibility (which includes the Kyiv region), “the accumulation of enemy forces is not noticed.”.

At the same time, according to his information, near the north of Ukraine, the Russians maintain a group of about 20 thousand soldiers. Belarusians have concentrated up to 2 thousand more fighters along the Ukrainian border.

Since then, there has been no official news about the increase in the number of Russian forces in the so-called “Kyiv” direction.

The head of the Ministry of Defense's GUR, Kirill Budanov, at the recent forum "Ukraine. Year 2024" also denied information about plans for a second attempt to advance the Russian army from the north: "They've been scaring us for two years: now they'll come from here and there... I'm tired of answering everyone. This is not true.".

However, all military observers interviewed by BBC News Ukraine admit that a new offensive on Kyiv is still possible.

“We need to be prepared for this, because this is a war. At any moment they can start some movements,” says Roman Pohoriliy, co-founder and analyst of the DeepState group.

“They can attack from Chernihiv region. They can attack through Sumy to Pryluky. They can attack from the East. They can attack from the South along the Dnieper. But from Belarus is the shortest way,” notes Kostyantyn Mashovets, coordinator of another monitoring group, “Information Resistance.”.

At the same time, he adds that there are currently no signs that the Russians are ready to "conduct deep operations towards Kyiv.".

And Taras Chmut, the chairman of the board of the “Return Alive” foundation, said on the “Frontova poplava” podcast that the threat of a second attack on Kyiv has increased in recent months.

“Is there such a threat? There is. Is it greater now than it was six months ago? Probably, yes. Is there a growing trend towards this? Probably, yes. Do they understand this trend in Ukraine? Probably, yes. Are they preparing? Yes,” he explained.

“Someone will definitely attack someone this year, because the war cannot go any other way. Someone always has a strategic initiative and tries to implement it. And there is always the other side that goes into strategic defense in order to exhaust the enemy’s advancing forces, seize the strategic initiative and launch a counteroffensive. This is the “base” of the war,” Taras Chmut noted.

And he added that "the year will be difficult.".

Signs of preparation

There is a set of quite clear signals that will indicate the preparation of a new offensive on Kyiv from Belarus or the regions of Russia closest to Kyiv.

In fact, these indicators were also present in February 2022, however, at that time they were regarded partly as elements of political pressure from Moscow.

“When the process of deploying Russians begins, we will see it. The military has signs of operational deployment of the group of troops: transport communications are operating in a certain mode, there are signs on the ground, there are preparations for hospitals and other elements,” says Kostyantyn Mashovets.

According to various estimates, such a deployment will be visible at least a month before the actual actions, and possibly even earlier - the movement of large military formations is impossible to hide under satellite reconnaissance conditions.

At the same time, the Russian command may resort to simulating an offensive on Kyiv in order to draw forces from other directions.

“The enemy can engage in an operational game and mislead. With a real concentration of a certain number of troops,” warns Kostyantyn Mashovets.

“We need to prepare for any options. In Avdiivka, the Russians actually climbed through the collector pipe,” adds Roman Pohoriliy.

At the same time, the real offensive on Kyiv will definitely differ from the actions of sabotage groups, which in fact constantly take place in northern Ukraine, but do not always make it into the news reports.

This can only be a combined-arms operation involving tens of thousands of Russian troops. Therefore, one of the main indicators of a new offensive on Kyiv could be a new wave of open (rather than covert, as is the case now) mobilization in the Russian Federation.

“The problem is what tasks the Russian military-political leadership will set. If their task is to keep under control the territories they currently have and create pressure on Ukrainian positions, then this group is enough for them. There is no point in announcing some large-scale open mobilization,” explained Mykola Beleskov, an analyst at the “Return Alive” fund, in an interview with the “Military” channel.

“If no mobilization is announced after the so-called “Russian presidential elections,” it means that Russia has chosen exactly this strategy (holding the captured territories. – Ed .). If they do announce it, it means that they are preparing to try something, maybe in one or two additional directions. The most likely potential direction that they are mentioning is the junction of Sumy and Kharkiv regions. But so far we do not see any signs of this,” he added.

The Russian presidential elections will be held on March 15-17.

Recruit of the "Freedom of Russia" legion and former lawyer Alexei Baranovsky, in a conversation with BBC News Ukraine, allows for the possibility of a new wave of mobilization of Russians.

"The logic is simple: after the March "electoral procedure", which the Kremlin is turning into a referendum on support for the war, Putin's hands will be finally untied. And not only with regard to Ukraine, but also with regard to his own population. They say, 80% said "yes" to Putin - now Putin is giving you the order to attack.".

“Putin may believe that his army has sufficiently recharged to repeat the march on Kyiv in three days. The result will be the same, and even more catastrophic for the Kremlin. The Ukrainian defense forces are ready to repel a new attack on Kyiv, and the Russian Freedom Legion will take part in the defense within the framework of the assigned tasks,” adds the Russian volunteer.

Conclusion: Kyiv needs to be ready

To re-attack Kyiv, the Russians will need to concentrate tens of thousands of fighters and equipment.

And taking into account the fortifications and other elements of the Ukrainian army's training in the north, this means the need for a much larger group.

“At the initial stage, 30 to 35 thousand people were advancing, along with reserves. But now they will not have strategic and operational surprise. So, the grouping clearly has to be larger,” says Kostyantyn Mashovets.

The Russians will probably now have to gather significantly more forces in the “Kyiv direction,” up to 100-120 thousand.

Similarly, without “operational surprise,” it is hardly possible to rapidly advance Russian columns on BMD and BMP deep into the Kyiv region by tens of kilometers per day, as well as a new landing at airfields, as was the case in Hostomel.

But this does not eliminate the general threat to Kyiv.

“The topic can become relevant any day,” Taras Chmut emphasized on the aforementioned “Poplavy” broadcast.

Potential destinations for a new major offensive may not be Kyiv, but another city or facility – Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi or Rivne nuclear power plants (the aforementioned RUSI study mentions the expectation of the occupation of these nuclear power plants by Belarusian forces at the beginning of a major invasion).

“No one expects anything else from Putin’s spring of 2024, except for a new wave of mobilization and military escalation. But it is also important for Russians to understand that the war will affect everyone and it will not be possible to sit it out, and the queues at the conditional Georgian border for those who do not want to fight for Putin’s ambitions as part of the occupation army may be even longer this time,” concludes Oleksiy Baranovsky.