Ukraine undoubtedly faces difficult challenges in the context of its conflict with Russia. One possible strategy for strengthening its own defenses, which is being actively discussed, is the possibility of creating its own nuclear weapons. This issue raises many questions, both technical and practical. What is the probability that Ukraine will be able to develop a nuclear bomb? And could it really affect the situation in the war with Russia?
Many foreign politicians have begun to forget about the threat posed by nuclear weapons, said Andrey Kolesnik, a State Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia party, this weekend, and suggested reminding the world of this danger by detonating a nuclear bomb somewhere in the Russian Federation.
Last year, the head of RT Margarita Simonyan also expressed the idea of detonating a nuclear bomb “somewhere over Siberia”. And in mid-August, the propaganda agency “RIA Novosti”, citing an anonymous source, spread information about the alleged preparation of an attack by Ukraine on nuclear power plants in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation (the city of Kurchatov) and the occupied Zaporizhzhia region (in Energodar). Is the West still afraid of the “Russian horror” and what does Ukraine have to say about it, the TV channel “Current Time”, created by Radio Liberty with the participation of Voice of America, asked the security expert.
Ukraine may start producing its own nuclear weapons if it does not receive guarantees of NATO membership, said former Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration of Ukraine Oleh Rybachuk.
«In particular, I drew attention to one article by a well-known Western expert who says that if Ukraine does not receive a guarantee of NATO membership, then the only alternative for it will be the production of nuclear weapons. In this article, he says that Ukraine, compared to any other country, is closest to the ability to produce its own nuclear weapons - this is the availability of human personnel, this is technology, and uranium reserves. And this was stated for the first time by serious international experts, I think that this is one of those factors that will, among other things, contribute to the faster persuasion of any team, any American president.
Therefore, if we are left without elections, as a result of Russian aggression, we will be convinced that in reality the West and NATO are unable to fulfill their obligations to Ukraine, we will increase the production of our own weapons. And most likely, we can technically and realistically begin to produce our own nuclear weapons, somewhat reminiscent of Israel, which said that Israel does not have nuclear weapons, but if necessary, we will deliver a corresponding nuclear strike on the aggressors. ", - said Rybachuk.
Oleksiy Izhak, an expert on international security, believes that talk about Ukraine creating its own nuclear weapons is "very theoretical.".
Disposal of a Tu-22 strategic bomber at a military airfield near Poltava, November 2002. The aircraft was destroyed as part of commitments to abandon nuclear weapons
"No one in Ukraine would dare, if such a decision is made, to do it secretly, it requires consultation," Izhak emphasized on the air of the "Current Time" TV channel.
"Yes, indeed, making a nuclear bomb in the modern world does not require much intelligence. And the fact that most countries do not do this is a political choice," he believes.
According to an international security expert, possession of nuclear weapons “does not paralyze the victim.” Izhak recalls that the Kremlin has repeatedly hinted that if something goes wrong, nuclear weapons will be used. “Did this deprive Ukraine of the ability to resist? No,” Izhak emphasizes. “I think the same reasoning can be made about Russia: what does it take to bring Putin to the negotiating table? It seems to me that it is unlikely to be a nuclear bomb.
"All this talk about the Budapest Memorandum being violated is important only in the sense that nuclear countries are reacting very nervously to it," the expert notes. "Because the fundamental idea of the end of the Cold War, when disarmament can be done and it will be safe, has really been violated.".
At a military base near Khmelnytskyi, workers remove the warhead of a Soviet-era SS-19 nuclear missile from its shaft, preparing it for shipment to Russia, handing over the last 40 nuclear warheads. April 1995
Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, giving up Soviet nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the UK and the US. Twenty years later, in 2014, Moscow violated this agreement by annexing the Crimean peninsula and provoking hostilities in the Donbas.
Dismantling of an SS-19 ballistic missile at a base in the village of Vakulenchuk, Zhytomyr region, December 24, 1997. Photo by AP
And five days before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine - in February 2022 - at the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recalled that Kyiv received security guarantees in exchange for giving up the world's third-largest nuclear potential. But they don't work.
"We don't have these weapons, we don't have security either. We don't even have part of the territory of our state," he stressed.
Russia launches Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk in northwestern Russia. Russian leader Putin has warned that he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons to repel Ukraine's attempt to regain control of occupied regions. April 2022
In October 2022, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held talks with his counterparts from Turkey, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States. According to the Russian press, he called them to report the news that Ukraine was preparing a provocation on its territory using a “dirty bomb.” In Ukraine, Shoigu’s statements were called lies. International security expert Alexei Izhak says that this was one of the Kremlin’s “nuclear scares.”.
"This is a regular explosive, a regular bomb, a large amount of TNT and hexane, mixed with spent nuclear fuel. And it causes not only destruction, but also contamination, similar to Chernobyl," the expert explains. "In general, it is difficult to do. To open these canisters, firstly, they are huge - 200 tons each canister, they are difficult to move. Secondly, the one who opens them dies. Therefore, to come up with such a design that allows for the effective use of such a bomb is the same theoretical blackmail as all other nuclear horrors.".
Meanwhile, earlier this summer, non-strategic nuclear forces exercises were held in Russia, involving units from the Leningrad and Southern Military Districts, as well as military personnel from Belarus. The armies of the two countries practiced launching electronic missile launches from land, air, and sea at simulated enemy targets.
The Kremlin said that these exercises were provoked by statements by NATO leaders about the possibility of sending Western military personnel to Ukraine. And Vladimir Putin, speaking at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, spoke about a possible change in Russia's nuclear doctrine.
NATO's nuclear deterrent
The possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine has been discussed since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022. Russia has been providing a pretext for this by transferring nuclear munitions to Belarus and organizing exercises with the withdrawal of nuclear forces into positions, the BBC notes.
For its part, NATO, although more moderately, openly reminds of the existence of its own nuclear weapons in Europe and speaks of deterring Russia.
Since the Cold War, when it came to nuclear deterrence, we meant strategic weapons—intercontinental missiles and warheads capable of destroying another country.
But now in Europe there is also talk of smaller-scale deterrence using tactical nuclear weapons (TNF) — lower-yield charges mounted on a carrier with a shorter range.
However, despite such limitations, there may be more problems with this. Not least because the role of TYZ in modern warfare, its number and purpose are not very clearly defined.
The fact that deterrence in NATO countries is ensured not only by strategic weapons, but also by nuclear weapons deployed in Europe has been widely discussed before. But in recent years, this has been mentioned more and more often, especially after a series of statements by the Russian leadership, the transfer of tactical weapons to Belarus, and demonstrative exercises of tactical nuclear forces.
On June 12, 2024, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at a briefing before the start of a meeting of NATO defense ministers, linked nuclear deterrence to Russian activity.
“NATO’s nuclear deterrence is our main security guarantee, our main deterrence is something that has evolved over the years in the Joint Nuclear Mission agreements, where the United States has nuclear weapons in Europe […] What we have seen in recent years or months is dangerous nuclear rhetoric from the Russian side. We have seen Russia announce the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, and we have also seen several more exercises, nuclear exercises from the Russian side,” he said.
Since tactical nuclear weapons are not intended to destroy enemy states, but for use on the battlefield, their relatively low power is one of their important characteristics.
However, as military experts note, the relatively small power of the TAZ is dangerous in that politicians or the military may decide to use it because they think that it will not provoke a full-scale nuclear war.
“At the same time, a number of tactical munitions have charges that are equal in power to, and sometimes exceed, those of strategic systems,” another Russian expert, who also wished to remain anonymous, explained to the BBC.
This applies in particular to Russian tactical nuclear weapons, some of which can be quite powerful. However, NATO believes that Russia does not actually intend to use nuclear weapons.
"We believe it is unlikely that Putin would use nuclear weapons in this conflict. And we have no information that he has decided to use this or that weapon of mass destruction, chemical, biological or radioactive. But at the same time, Russian rhetoric remains quite dangerous. We believe it is irresponsible for the leader of any nuclear-armed state [to utter such words] in this context," a NATO spokesman told the BBC.
Meanwhile, Kyiv thinks otherwise. Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said in an interview with the Times that he does not rule out that Putin may use tactical nuclear weapons if the Russian army is defeated in Ukraine.
A Russian military expert, speaking to the BBC on condition of anonymity, said the Kremlin's resolve should not be underestimated.
“I don’t really understand what this confidence is based on. We are confident that Putin will not use nuclear weapons… Why?” he said.
