During two years on the front lines, soldier Ilya only rested for 25 days. “We need rotation or adequate rest to recover,” the Ukrainian soldier is quoted as saying by the Financial Times. He claims that the prospect of endless service is one of the reasons why many Ukrainian men avoid mobilization.
According to the FT, before the new wave of mobilization, during which it is planned to involve up to 500 thousand soldiers, the parliament must adopt a new law on mobilization. After the first reading, more than 4,000 amendments were made to it. The Ukrainian Defense Minister explained to the British publication that half a million mobilized people are needed, first of all, to replace 330 thousand exhausted fighters on the front line, and the rest - to compensate for losses and other military needs.
Currently, as the FT notes, only men over 27, many of whom are volunteers, can serve on the front lines. This puts the average age of Ukrainian defenders on the front lines at around 40.
Ukraine has a smaller share of millennials and Generation Z (born from the early 1980s to the present) compared to other countries, which is explained by the decline in birth rates after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The proposal to lower the mobilization age to 25 has drawn sharp criticism from those who believe that sending young people to the front lines is suicide for the nation.
President Zelensky recently announced the official figure for front-line casualties at 31,000. But the real number could be much higher—at least several senior American officials have previously claimed at least twice that number.
According to information provided by the Ukrainian parliament's economic committee and according to an article in the Financial Times, out of more than 11 million people of draft age (from 25 to 60 years old), only 3.7 million are subject to mobilization.
Others are already at the front, have disabilities, are abroad, or are employed at critical enterprises.
The Ukrainian authorities understand the importance of a cautious approach to mobilization, as the loss of taxpayers due to traveling abroad or illegal employment can deprive the budget of significant revenues.
A study conducted by Info Sapiens shows that in addition to the fear of being injured or killed, Ukrainian men are deterred by insufficient training, an uncertain term of service, and a lack of adequate weapons for combat operations.
The new draft law on mobilization attempts to address these issues. It limits the term of service to three years with a minimum of three months of combat training.
In addition, some brigades are considering the possibility of mobilization by ability to attract new soldiers to the army. However, delays in American and European military assistance, which have led to losses of positions in some parts of the front, are beyond Kyiv's control and are worsening the situation.
In addition to lowering the age criterion for mobilization and introducing an electronic registry that will allow blocking driver's licenses for evading service, the mobilization bill has another controversial proposal - so-called economic reservation, or the exclusion from mobilization of those considered critical to the economy.
Initially, this provision was to be included in the draft law on mobilization, but taking into account public reaction, it may be introduced by a separate law or government decision.
Today, between 550,000 and 700,000 workers in Ukraine are “reserved” under a new system that will require a financial contribution to ensure victory – soldiers will need to pay a certain amount of payroll taxes or a fixed monthly contribution.
However, the head of the parliamentary security committee, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, warns that the authorities should approach this issue with caution. “Every penny is important, but this should be part of a general solution. There are those who believe that this could divide society into rich and poor,” Zavitnevych is quoted as saying by the FT.
According to calculations by the parliamentary economic committee, if about 2 million people paid a special contribution of up to 20 thousand hryvnias per month, the budget could receive from 200 to 350 billion hryvnias per year.
Committee Chairman Dmytro Natalukha acknowledges that such plans will face sharp criticism, as only those who cannot afford it will be mobilized. However, he emphasizes that Ukraine needs to find a way to raise funds, and the economic reservation is not intended to “save” people from mobilization, but to provide additional financial resources for the army.
According to the Ministry of Finance, additional mobilization in 2024 will cost Ukraine approximately 800 billion hryvnias. This will only exacerbate the already significant Ukrainian budget deficit, especially given the delay in US military aid, the decision on which is blocked by Republicans in Congress.
