On November 21, Russia first used an Oreshnik intercontinental ballistic missile against Ukraine, specifically targeting the Dnieper River. The event sparked heated debate among military experts about whether Ukraine is capable of effectively countering such threats.
The Oreshnik missile is a new development of the Russian military-industrial complex, designed for intercontinental attacks. According to the State Defense Committee, Russia currently has up to 10 such missiles. However, their serial production remains questionable, since the technological and economic potential of the Russian Federation is significantly limited, as noted by aviation expert Valery Romanenko.
Despite the high technical characteristics of the Oreshnik, Ukrainian air defenses may try to repel it. Although Patriot systems are not designed to destroy intercontinental missiles, they can be used to attempt to intercept them.
Kostyantyn Kryvolap, an aviation analyst, noted that to combat such missiles, Ukraine needs more modern systems, such as:
- THAAD (USA): one of the most powerful missile defense systems, capable of shooting down missiles at altitudes of up to 200 km.
- Aegis (USA): a ship-based system operating at closer ranges.
- “Sagittarius-3” (Israel): similar to THAAD, but with some unique features.
Kryvolap noted that even the most modern American GMD system has only a 55-60% success rate in destroying intercontinental missiles. This is due to the difficulty of intercepting at high altitudes, where the warhead moves at enormous speed.
Despite the demonstration of the Oreshnik, Russia faces significant difficulties in establishing mass production of such missiles. Experts believe that economic sanctions, technological isolation, and lack of resources significantly limit Russia's capabilities in this direction.
Ukraine continues to work on strengthening its air defense system. In parallel, negotiations are underway with allies on the supply of modern defense systems that can effectively counter threats like the "Oreshnik".
