Next year could be a critical year for Ukraine financially. People's Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak, referring to an article by The Economist, said that without clear decisions from the European Union on support, Ukraine could be on the verge of bankruptcy by February. He warns: the main problem is not only how much money will be promised, but whether EU countries will be able to agree on the terms and directions of this assistance.
Zheleznyak draws attention to the fact that currently there is no guaranteed mechanism for stable financing of Ukraine by the EU. Despite public statements about support packages, there is no unity within the European Union either on the source of funds or on how exactly they can be spent. Some countries oppose the use of frozen Russian assets as collateral or a source of payments. Others do not want to finance the purchase of weapons from allies, especially the United States, insisting that this money should work for their own defense industry. And there are states that are afraid of losing “budgetary discipline” and are not ready to increase contributions to pan-European assistance mechanisms.
As a result, we have a paradox: they talk about large sums, but there is no certainty - neither when they will arrive, nor what exactly they will be allowed to spend them on. Zheleznyak says that now it is not only the loan of hundreds of billions of euros for Russian assets that is under question, but also the areas of its use: defense, budget holes, infrastructure restoration. Each of the countries is trying to impose its own conditions, and this is delaying the decision.
Another sensitive point that The Economist draws attention to and which the deputy quotes is the attitude of partners to the risk of corruption in Ukraine. Western governments recognize that the Ukrainian defense industry has learned to quickly produce drones and other technologies that actually work on the front. But at the same time, distrust remains in the transparency of the distribution of funds. For some European capitals, this is an argument not to rush into direct investments in military programs inside Ukraine.
Summarizing this position, Zheleznyak describes the situation as follows: the supply of international support is limited in time; in February we may reach a point where the budget simply cannot be reduced without external money; even if the EU agrees to a new package, there is no certainty that these funds will actually go to critical needs, and not get stuck in political bargaining between the capitals of the European Union. And all this is happening against the background of the fact that the Ukrainian government at home continues to announce business support programs and social initiatives, while external partners see the survival of the budget and defense financing as the primary issue.
Thus, both The Economist and the Zheleznyak quoted by it describe the same risk: Ukraine's financial stability now depends not so much on the amount of promised aid, but on the EU's ability to agree and trust Kyiv on the use of this money.
