This winter, the temperature in Ukraine fell below -15 degrees, but unlike last season, when Russia tried to plunge the country into a long blackout, this time the attacks on the power system were less intense.
The frosts in early January were even stronger, but electricity consumption continued to rise. Ukrainians were urged to prepare for a possible worsening of the situation, but attacks on the power system were less frequent.
Russia continues to attack Ukraine using a variety of weapons, including ballistic missiles and Shaheda, sometimes shelling cities and killing civilians.
However, this time attacks on energy facilities do not lead to large-scale blackouts, as happened in the winter of 2022/23. As noted by experts, both energy experts and the military, Russia's strategy has changed.
The question remains: why did Russia abandon a full attack on Ukrainian energy this time? Perhaps due to a lack of missiles, more effective Ukrainian air defense or a change in priorities? And is there a threat of a return to the previous strategy in the future?
In September 2022, Russia launched its first massive attack on Ukraine's power grid, marking the beginning of a series of attacks during this season.
During the period from October 2022 to March 2023, Russian forces carried out approximately 1,200 strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Ukrenergo reported. Most of the destroyed substations were attacked by the Russians at least twice. As a result, all large thermal and hydroelectric plants were affected, the company reported.
The missile terror continued throughout the fall and winter, forcing Ukrainians to periodically go without electricity, hot water, and even heating for hours and even days, and adapt to a schedule of blackouts.
Despite this, the energy system withstood great difficulties. Even until the summer, it was necessary to almost stop power outages.
However, experts warn that next winter could be even more difficult, and Russia may be trying to finish what it started last season.
It seems that Ukraine has not yet fully recovered from the attacks of last year. Many thermal power plants were destroyed, and Russian troops also hit hydroelectric power plants on the Dnipro and Dniester rivers.
"Russia is stockpiling missiles and looking for ways to bypass Ukrainian air defenses. And waiting for the cold. He is waiting for the moment of our vulnerability," warned Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, head of Ukrenergo, in November 2023.
Ukraine did not remain aloof. With the help of Western allies, they gradually restored damaged power stations, stocked up on spare parts, and worked on the protection of energy facilities.
But in September 2023, it seemed that a new season of blackouts was approaching.
On September 21, Russian forces fired 43 missiles at Ukraine. Some of them were shot down, but some hit energy facilities in the west and center of the country. It was the first major blow to energy in six months. Some regions of central and western Ukraine, including Kyiv region, were temporarily left without electricity.
"We understand that the stage of energy terror has already begun this heating season," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal warned.
However, the most pessimistic forecasts have not been confirmed so far.
And although the Russian forces continue to inflict pinpoint strikes on energy facilities, the heating season is already two-thirds over. Therefore, even if Russia tries to "freeze" Ukraine, it will probably be more difficult to do so this season.
Last year's heating season and the current one are significantly different, the Air Force of Ukraine reported through the Ukrenergo press service.
According to the company, Ukrainian citizens have not faced massive restrictions on energy consumption for almost a year.
Although on some days during frost or heat, there is a shortage in the power system, and dispatchers have to turn to neighboring countries such as Poland, Romania and Slovakia for help.
From time to time, Russian missiles target energy infrastructure, mainly targeting areas near the front line, in particular in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions.
One of the latest examples is the drone attack on high-voltage facilities in the Kryvyi Rih region at the beginning of February. This caused the first power outages since the start of the heating season.
Later, Dnipropetrovsk region was again hit by Russian strikes: on February 11, drones hit a substation in Pavlograd, shutting down part of the city. Two days later, drones damaged the equipment of the thermal power plant, which led to interruptions in electricity supply and heating in Dnipro.
However, at the level of the whole of Ukraine, attacks by Russian troops no longer cause similar destruction as last year.
Ukrenergo explains this with high readiness for winter, strengthening of air defense and the fact that Russian forces now use drones more often, which are more easily shot down by air defense.
"We were prepared for possible attacks on our energy facilities: throughout 2023, we accumulated an emergency stock of equipment, built protective structures, improved repair work schemes, and together with local authorities developed new options for backup power," - explained in the comments for the Military Air Force of Ukraine.
As an example of successful preparation, the company cites the attack on Kryvyi Rih in early February, which was one of the largest this season.
"Last year, such a blow to the energy infrastructure could lead to the disconnection of the energy supply of the entire region. And this year, there were interruptions in electricity supply only in certain districts of Kryvorizhye."
The company also admits that Russia is now using other methods. These attacks are not as large-scale as they used to be.
"This winter, we have observed that Russia has changed its tactics and is attacking the Ukrainian energy system mainly with the help of drones. Most of them are successfully eliminated by our Armed Forces... And protective structures cover the equipment as much as possible," they explain.
The Ukrainian military confirms that Russia's strategy has indeed undergone changes.
"You see that there is light in the country, of course, that here the fact remains a fact - Russia has concentrated its strikes on other objects, unlike last year," said Yuriy Ignat, the spokesman of the Air Force Command, in a comment for the Ukrainian Air Force.
Total blackout is no longer their goal, he believes.
Ignat reminds that last season powerful attacks became weekly.
"Massive - plus less massed, about 70 rockets one day, 30 rockets the next. Plus "Shakheda", they kept us up almost every night. They wanted to deprive us of the possibility of a normal existence."
"Therefore, everyone was afraid that Russia would accumulate a certain number of missiles and start shelling our energy system again. But with the arrival of cold weather, autumn and winter, in principle, we did not see powerful shelling," Ignat adds.
Why?
An Air Force spokesman answers this question as follows:
"The end of winter is coming soon, the enemy obviously understands that last year they did not achieve their goal, Ukraine was not plunged into a blackout, but this year it was preparing."
A similar opinion is expressed by the former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and an expert on air defense issues, General Ihor Romanenko.
"They see that the war will last a long time, and it is necessary to achieve results, first of all, by military means. Last year they saw: they struck (on energy), but the cities remained untouched. They saw that it takes a lot of time and requires a lot of resources," he said in a comment for BBC Ukraine.
Yuriy Ignat also mentions the strengthening of the air defense system - especially mobile groups that received new equipment: night lights, thermal imagers, searchlights. This helps them shoot down more Shaheds with MANPADS and small arms.
"Plus, the Western systems, of course, also strengthened the Soviet ones that are in Ukraine," he adds.
However, he also notes that Soviet systems and missiles are depleting, and Ukraine is looking to help from its partners to replenish those stocks.
The refusal to plunge Ukraine into darkness indicates that Moscow has reoriented its forces to other goals.
Frequent strikes on the Kremenchug Oil Refinery indicate that, like last year, the Ukrainian oil refining industry remains the object of Russian forces' attention.
However, the main goal now is primarily military facilities.
"Since there are not enough missiles to attack all objects, including thermal and energy infrastructure, they have to be used primarily against military objects: the military-industrial complex, airfields, anti-aircraft missile complexes... The priorities and objects of attacks have changed ”, - explains Ihor Romanenko.
According to the expert, the Russians are now trying to achieve the greatest possible advance at the front.
"The most important thing for Putin right now is to show significant progress by March, before the elections: to continue the aggressive succession, to completely capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions, to expand the occupation of Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Kharkiv regions."
"That's why they reoriented their strikes on military targets, but at the same time they don't forget about cities like Kharkiv or Kherson in order to psychologically influence their residents," adds General Romanenko.
This new strategy is confirmed by Yuriy Ignat in a conversation with the BBC.
"The emphasis of shelling has changed, it is now aimed at military objects," he notes.
However, it is difficult to assess the effectiveness of this strategy, since information about shelling of military facilities in Ukraine is classified.
However, another factor that could have prompted Russia to change tactics is the lack of missiles.
Specialists have long discussed the fact that the Russians have an infinite supply of long-range cruise missiles, and they are trying to conserve them.
"Last year they used almost all their missiles. They turned to serious reserves. They realize that it will not be possible to quickly increase the production that has been developed for years. Cruise missiles require considerable expenditure of money, time, and a sufficient number of components," says Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat.
Now, instead of that, ballistic missiles are used more in attacks on Ukraine.
In addition, the Russians actively use kamikaze drones. They can be shot down more easily, but they exhaust Ukrainian air defenses, and some of them still reach their targets.
Another reason for the decrease in the use of winged "Calibers", which were previously often used against Ukrainian infrastructure, is the successful strikes of Ukrainian forces on the structures of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.
"Since the Ukrainian troops hit the structures of the Black Sea Fleet, (the Russians) now have less opportunity to use Kalibrs - cruise missiles," - explains Ihor Romanenko.
Does this mean that at least in the current cold season, blackouts can no longer be expected?
"Ukrenergo" clearly says that you should be careful with forecasts, but note that a significant part of the heating season has already passed without blackouts and massive restrictions on consumption.
"Yes, we notice that the Russians are stockpiling missiles and drones from North Korea and Iran, and we understand that they can strike at any moment. It is impossible to predict what this blow will be. However, our air defense system is now much stronger than last year, and we are more prepared," the company says in a comment to the Ukrainian Air Force.
Military experts also do not express overly optimistic predictions. Everything will depend on Ukraine's ability to continue to repel attacks, as well as on the goals that Russia will set for itself.
"This is a strategy. It is determined by Putin and his military leadership based on what they want to achieve. Now they aim to advance as much as possible at the front," Ihor Romanenko emphasizes.
