On the morning of May 10, what the Ukrainian authorities and Western experts had expected for a long time was accomplished: Russia launched a new front. The country's troops crossed the border of the Kharkiv region and began an offensive in the direction of the regional center.
The army of the Russian Federation began an offensive in two ways along significant water obstacles. The first route ran along the Travyan reservoir to the village of Liptsi, located 16 km north of Kharkiv. The second route ran along the Siverskyi Donets River near the city of Vovchansk, which is 45 km northeast of the regional center.
During four days of offensive actions, the Russian army managed to capture almost a dozen small villages near the state border. It moved approximately 5-6 km deep into Ukrainian territory and 30 km wide.
The armed forces of Ukraine are trying to restrain the enemy and prevent losses near the village of Lyptsi, as well as the capture of Vovchansk and its surroundings.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi describes the situation as "aggravated", and Ukrainian fighters, who are actively participating in the battles in the Kharkiv direction, report problems with fortifications and command.
At the end of winter, mass media from all over the world began to talk about the possibility of Russia opening a new front in the Kharkiv Region. The Ukrainian authorities denied this for a long time, claiming that this direction is protected as much as possible.
In March, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrskyi, recalled in his interview that there is already experience in the successful liberation of Kharkiv Oblast in the fall of 2022.
"We already have the experience of combat operations in the Kharkiv region, we managed to effectively resist the enemy and liberate a large part of the Kharkiv region. It was then that a large-scale defeat of the Russian front took place. If the Russians attack again, Kharkiv will be fatal for them," the general said.
However, when on May 10 a new offensive in Kharkiv Oblast did become a fact, the Ukrainian military was forced to retreat a few kilometers deep into its territory, allowing the Russian Federation to occupy the border villages.
Why did this happen? Some experts and the military point out that the first line of defense, which included an area of minefields, anti-tank ditches and concrete "dragon's teeth", was not properly prepared and covered by fire. It was about the line that was being built at a distance of 1.5-6 km from the border and was supposed to significantly slow down the enemy's advance.
General Oleksandr Yakovets, ex-chief of the engineering troops, now head of the State Special Service of Transport, claims that the most prepared defensive line in Kharkiv region is located on the third line, namely 17-35 km from the state border.
According to him, due to constant shelling, the front line of defense in the Kharkiv region could not be properly equipped with engineering equipment and reinforced concrete structures.
Therefore, the general considers the claims of some military personnel regarding the absence of buried concrete fortifications near the state border to be absurd. However, the sudden change in the deployment of the operational-tactical group in this direction may indicate that the Ukrainian defense plan did not go according to plan.
General Mykhailo Drapaty was appointed to the position of commander of OTU instead of Yury Galushkin. Sources in the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed this information.
Last year, he commanded troops on the right bank of the Kherson Region, heading the Kakhovka operational group, and then was transferred to the General Staff for troop training.
"They don't change commanders just like that. This indicates the identification of shortcomings," Israeli military expert David Handelman notes.
Ukrainian analyst from the "Information Resistance" group Kostyantyn Mashovets believes that the previous commander of the "Kharkiv" OTU was removed precisely because of the insufficient organization of fire cover of the support strip on the front edge of the defense.
Military expert and historian Mykhailo Zhirokhov is sure that the new commander Mykhailo Drapaty will change the approach to defense in this direction.
According to him, the OTU has already received several "fresh" brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to perform tasks. This is also reported by the General Staff. Also, some units, for example, the Third Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have already publicly announced their relocation to Kharkiv Oblast.
"But it can be risky to transfer even more operational reserves to this direction," - notes Zhirokhov.
David Handelman points to one of the tasks of the Russian Federation - to draw away Ukrainian reserves from other directions.
"In the future, the most important issue will be the balance of forces and, most importantly, the tempo. The key will be the speed with which each of the parties will transfer reserves", - believes the Israeli expert.
Currently, the Russian army is conducting its offensive in Kharkiv Oblast with limited forces consisting of only a few battalions. For example, Russia used five battalions (approximately 2.5-3 thousand soldiers) for the assault on Vovchansk, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces.
In general, the Russian military group in this area has about 30-35 thousand soldiers.
"The plan of the Russians has just begun to be implemented, and we have not yet seen the main forces and means that they have," Mykhailo Zhirokhov notes.
He predicts that the second echelon of Russian troops can be introduced on May 16, and the third - approximately on May 20.
According to the expert, it is by this time that the Russian Federation intends to maximally implement its tactical plan in the Kharkiv direction.
However, what exactly this tactical plan consists of - the opinions of experts differ significantly.
Western media, including The New York Times, do not rule out that the main goal of the Russian Federation may be to get as close as possible to Kharkiv in order to fire artillery at the city or its surroundings. This could probably force the leadership of Ukraine to start negotiations with Putin.
However, most military analysts believe that Russian forces are too limited to carry out a large-scale operation to storm or encircle a large city of a million people.
According to David Handelman, the main goal of the Russians now is to build a solid "buffer zone" near the Ukrainian border in the Kharkiv region.
Already at the beginning of the year, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced these plans.
"We may have to create a certain 'sanitary zone' in the territory under the control of the Kyiv regime," he said on March 18, considering Russia's possible response to the shelling of Belgorod.
Since the shelling of this Russian city is most often carried out by the Vampire multiple-launch rocket systems with a range of 40-42 km, the Kremlin probably plans to extend this "zone" deep into Ukraine.
According to Handelman, the Russians plan to move deep on their lines of invasion, especially near Vovchansk and Liptsi, and then unite them.
Ukrainian analyst Mykhailo Zhirokhov has a different view. According to him, the direction of the attack on Lypka and further on to Kharkiv is a diversion. The main goal of the Russian army is to capture Vovchansk and move south to cut off the logistics of the Ukrainian group near Kupyansk.
This city is of strategic importance as a major railway junction on the Oskil River, and its control has become the main goal of the Russian Federation since 2022. Since then, the Russian army has been trying to reoccupy it.
However, according to Zhirokhov, so far the Russians have not been able to break through the Ukrainian defense to a significant depth and achieve success in implementing their plans.
David Handelman agrees with this.
"So far we are dealing with the "fog of war". It cannot be said that the actions of the Russians reached the level of an operational breakthrough," he emphasizes.
"Although the situation is difficult, a serious front breakthrough is not expected in the near future. Even if the Russians occupy Vovchansk and Liptsi, this does not mean that the front will disintegrate. This only once again demonstrates the lack of preparedness of the Ukrainian defense in this direction."
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on May 13, the Russian army continued to conduct assault operations in the Kharkiv direction and actively used aviation. The Ukrainians are trying to counterattack and prevent the enemy from advancing deep into their defenses.
"For the Kharkiv direction, we sent the reserves created the day before. Depending on the situation, we will continue to build up groups. Our troops have the necessary means to respond," the General Staff notes.
The Russian authorities did not make statements about the opening of a new front in Ukraine, only the Ministry of Defense reported in its daily briefing on May 11 that it had "liberated", i.e. occupied, five villages in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine the previous day.
