The year 2024 is guaranteed to be even more turbulent for Ukraine than the previous one. And many events in it will determine whether Ukraine will be able to defeat Russia in the war.
In the war equation for Ukraine, the main unknown quantity on which the final outcome undoubtedly depends is the role of the United States of America.
American military and financial aid, even under the condition of increased support from Europe, is the factor on which not only the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian army depends, but also the functioning of the Ukrainian state and the moral state of Ukrainian society in general.
After all, more than half of Ukraine's budget depends on external financing.
Dialogues about American support and analysis of forecasts for the upcoming elections in the USA are heard not only in high offices in Kyiv, but also in public transport and in the kitchens of Ukrainians both at home and in temporary housing abroad.
And it is the States that set the trend for the provision or non-provision of assistance to Ukraine by other states, playing the role of the first violin in the orchestra of Ukrainian allies.
It is to America that the Kremlin appeals when it tries to impose negotiations on its own terms on Kyiv, reducing the role of Ukraine to one that is devoid of any subjectivity. Moscow still believes that it can agree with Washington on Ukraine. Without Ukraine.
Joe Biden has so far demonstrated the opposite. But his first term expires in November 2024, and according to all the rules of American politics, any incumbent president, not only Biden, turns into a "lame duck" in the last year of his reign.
It is noteworthy that last year Ukrainians felt what it was like to lose confidence in American support.
During the emotional discussion about the expediency of Washington's multibillion-dollar aid to Kyiv in the US Congress, Ukrainians have already clarified the differences between the Senate and the House of Representatives, studied the names of their speakers and minority leaders.
The vote on providing Ukraine with $61 billion in aid was postponed until January due to disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over the Mexican border, and a positive decision seems expected and even inevitable. Although there may be surprises here.
Plus, this could be the last such vote in favor of Ukraine.
With the US presidential election on the horizon, Ukraine is losing confidence in America's continued iron-and-concrete support in the war against Russia.
The joker here is, of course, Donald Trump, who may not be allowed to run for election on November 5 at all. But if he is admitted, the eloquent Christmas greeting of the ex-president of the USA, in which he wished his opponents to "rot in hell together with his Ukraine and Russia", can serve as a cold shower for Ukrainians.
And although the presidential election is not the only major event among those scheduled for 2024 in America, which is able to sharply change the trajectory of relations between Kyiv and Washington, however, one way or another, most of the dates described below in the American calendar are connected either with the trials of Donald Trump or with the course of presidential campaign.
We examine the chronology of political life in the United States in 2024 in detail.
Winter. Voting on support of Ukraine and Republican debates
The House of Representatives returns from the Christmas break on January 9, 2024 Congressmen are expected to unblock aid to Ukraine. There is no longer a debate between Republicans and Democrats on this issue.
At least House Speaker Johnson calls aid to Ukraine a "priority for the United States."
However, the problem of financing the strengthening of the US southern border with Mexico remains unresolved.
The Biden administration has taken steps toward the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Kyiv can only wait.
10, 18, and 21, 2024, there will be a debate of candidates for the nomination of the Republican Party for the post of President of the United States.
Former president and poll favorite Donald Trump is likely to skip them, as he has ignored the previous four rounds of internal party debates.
So US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, ex-governor of New Jersey Chris Christie, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who is also called "Donald Trump 2.0", and perhaps ex-governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson will try to convince television viewers of the ability to become a worthy candidate in US presidents.
Among them, only Chris Christie was in Ukraine - he visited Kyiv already after the full-scale Russian invasion.
The absence of Republican front-runner Donald Trump will cast a shadow over the debate. Meanwhile, the ex-president himself declares that he would like to debate, but with Joe Biden.
Spring. Lawsuits against Trump
March promises to be a super hot month in American politics. At the beginning of the first spring month, two events will take place at once - the trial of Donald Trump and "Super Tuesday".
On March 4, 2024, a trial on the merits of the United States of America v. Donald J. Trump , alleging former President Trump's involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 U.S. presidential election, including Trump's role in the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
A grand jury has issued an indictment against Donald Trump on the following four counts:
– conspiracy to defraud the United States;
– conspiracy to obstruct official procedures;
– obstructing and attempting to obstruct official procedures;
- conspiracy to violate the rights of citizens.
The investigation believes that Trump was determined to stay in power after losing the presidential election, so he spread lies about alleged voting fraud, knowing that it was not true. And he tried to prevent Congress from confirming Joe Biden's victory, calling on congressmen to delay the procedure and inciting his supporters to violence at the Capitol.
Donald Trump does not admit his guilt. His entourage calls the process an attempt to interfere in the upcoming presidential elections and a "witch hunt."
Now the biggest drama is that the accelerated consideration of this case, which the special prosecutor insisted on, may not happen. The relevant decision was made by the Supreme Court. This can complicate the electoral process and make it easier for Donald Trump.
There is no clear consensus on whether Donald Trump's potential guilty plea would automatically bar him from running for the US presidency.
The third section of the 14th amendment to the US Constitution prohibits those who have ever participated in rebellion from holding public office. This rule was introduced in America after the Civil War to prevent separatists from coming to power.
At the same time, there are only three conditions for the possibility of running for the presidency of the United States: the candidate must be born in America, he must be at least 35 years old, and he must live in the United States for at least 14 years. And the Constitution does not mention the criminal record of a candidate for the presidency of the United States. Moreover, there were already precedents. In 1920, socialist Eugene Debs ran for president straight from prison, where he was serving time for an anti-war speech criticizing America's entry into World War I.
The United States plunged into a new season of the TV series about Trump, which revolves around his right to run for office.
At first, the Supreme Court of the state of Minnesota refused to prohibit Trump from participating in the presidential race.
Then the Supreme Court of the state of Colorado banned Donald Trump from participating in elections in the state. Thus, the court essentially recognized Trump as a participant in the rebellion on January 6, 2021.
Subsequently, the Supreme Court of the state of Michigan called Trump's right to run or not a political question, and therefore the competence of the US Congress, not a court.
Then Maine Secretary of State Shanna Bellows banned Donald Trump from participating in the state's Republican primaries, citing the same third section of the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution. Trump appealed the decision.
Now the fate of the American ex-president, who wants to become president again, must be determined by the US Supreme Court. He is tasked with deciding whether to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court's decision, and then Trump will automatically get on the ballot in all but one state. However, for this to happen, a majority of judges must be convinced that Donald Trump did not participate in the rebellion.
The so-called "Super Tuesday" on March 5, 2024 .
On this day, 15 states and territories will hold primaries to elect delegates to the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. They will later choose presidential candidates from the parties.
The People of the State of New York vs. Donald J. Trump trial will begin on March 25, 2024 .
The former president of the United States is accused of paying secret funds to porn actress Stormy Daniels [real name – Stephanie Clifford] during the 2016 presidential campaign.
The investigation believes that he sought to ensure Clifford's silence about their past sexual relationship. Clifford was then arranging an interview on television, the topic of which could be her relationship with Trump.
Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, claimed that he paid the porn actress $130,000 out of his own pocket. Trump later reimbursed him for the costs, which turned out to be classified as legal costs.
Because of this, Trump is accused of falsifying business documents.
And if he is found guilty on all counts, the maximum sentence could reach 136 years behind bars.
Donald Trump does not admit guilt and accuses the prosecutor of being politically motivated.
But that's not all.
On May 20, 2024, court hearings in the case "United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltin Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira" .
This is a federal criminal case against Donald Trump, his aide Walt Nauta and the head of maintenance at his Mar-a-Lago villa, Carlos De Oliveira, and concerns the former president's storage of classified documents at his villa.
Trump is accused of mishandling classified documents after the end of his presidency under the Espionage Act, as well as perjury and conspiracy to obstruct an investigation.
Trump pleads not guilty.
Summer. NATO summit and formal nomination of candidates
On July 9-11, 2024, the NATO summit will be held in Washington, which will coincide with the organization's 75th anniversary. Ukraine seeks to receive a formal invitation to join the Alliance as soon as possible.
However, Ukraine's road to NATO is long and winding, as the 2023 summit in Vilnius testified. There, the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, promised Ukraine an invitation when "all allies agree and the conditions are met." And at the same time he noted that full membership of Ukraine is impossible while the war is going on.
After Vilnius, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen suggested considering Ukraine's so-called "hybrid membership", which involves Ukraine's partial entry into the Alliance. At first, according to such a plan, NATO could accept territories controlled by Kyiv. And later, in theory, Ukrainian lands freed from Russian occupation in the future could join.
However, at the final annual press conference, President Zelenskyy called such a proposal delusional and said that Ukraine "is not invited to NATO."
Therefore, the bold thoughts about the probable invitation of Ukraine to NATO from President Biden, which were heard recently in the Ukrainian information environment, are unlikely to materialize next year.
On July 15-18, 2024, the Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee, where the Republican candidates for president and vice president of the United States will be nominated. According to tradition, the party that is not in charge of the White House is the first to hold such a convention and nominate candidates.
The Democratic Party will hold its National Convention on August 19-22, 2024 in Chicago.
Biden's main rival is not even called Trump, but his own age - 81 years.
There are voices that insist on the need to support an alternative candidate who, in their opinion, may have a better chance of defeating Donald Trump. But the way the situation unfolds as of the beginning of 2024 indicates that the Democrats will obviously bet on the candidacy of the current president - Joe Biden.
However, the chair under his vice president - Kamala Harris - is shaking. And here are possible options.
Autumn. Debates and election day
On September 16, 2024, Texas will host the first debate between the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. Candidates will practice public speaking for 90 minutes.
The second and third round of debates are scheduled for October 1 and October 9, 2024, respectively.
The US presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024 It is still not known for sure who will take part in them. Too many factors can influence the final decision. Although the biggest chances of meeting in a political duel are old opponents - current US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.
Even if the names of the candidates are different, it is already obvious that the fight will be fierce. And its outcome will largely predict the conditions under which Ukraine will be able to complete the full-scale war that Russia has started against it.
