During the last month, the Ukrainian authorities at various levels have been actively demonstrating their attitude towards citizens who have gone abroad, emphasizing the need for their return. According to representatives of the authorities, the economy and the budget need stimulation, which can only be achieved by attracting labor and taxes from citizens.
In his New Year's address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi for the first time expressed the opposition between being a refugee or a citizen, calling on those who left to return and live according to the rule of "work or fight".
Serhii Leshchenko, adviser to the head of the president's office, supported this call, calling on the countries that received Ukrainians to stop providing support to refugees to facilitate their return home.
In addition, Zelensky suggests that the governments of these countries redirect payments for refugees directly to the budget of Ukraine. Nevertheless, his wife Olena Zelenska expressed the opinion that "it is wrong to force people to return."
Such power attacks caused various reactions in society. Considering the fact that more than 6 million Ukrainians, especially women and children, have gone abroad since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia, the issue of security and provision of their needs is becoming urgent.
It seems to some that Ukraine can use the return of citizens to support the economy, increase tax revenues and replenish the labor market. However, there are risks to spending on social programs, education, health care and infrastructure.
Therefore, the ability of Ukraine to provide jobs, education and housing for millions of people who may decide to return, following the calls of the authorities, remains an important issue.
Experts admit that the calls of the Ukrainian authorities for the return of migrants are justified.
According to Anatoly Amelin from the "Ukrainian Institute of the Future", the income of one migrant in the first year of his stay in the USA amounts to more than 100 thousand dollars, and the long-term economic gain can reach 1.7-2 million dollars. He explains that the arrival of a person leads to the activation of consumption, employment, housing rent and even the purchase of real estate, which is an important stimulus for the development of the economy.
Experts also emphasize that even children who are not yet able to work contribute to the economy of the country where they live. According to the study of the "Ukrainian Institute of the Future", the average Ukrainian family spends from 80 to 100 thousand dollars on taxes, goods and services to raise one child up to 18 years of age.
Even if a Ukrainian has moved abroad, but continues to pay taxes in Ukraine, working remotely, the income and taxes from his consumption abroad fully compensate for the costs of services he receives in the country of residence, says the executive director of the Center for Economic Strategy, Hleb Vyshlinskyi.
In general, from the point of view of the economy, the authorities' calls for a return make sense and are well-founded, experts are convinced.
According to Olga Pishchulina, expert of the Razumkov Center on gender and social issues, in order for Ukraine to develop as a state and for the budget to be filled, it is necessary to have able-bodied people.
According to one of the leading Ukrainian job search services, Work.ua, there is already a noticeable shortage of personnel on the labor market. According to the data, at the beginning of the conflict, the number of vacancies decreased sharply, while the number of job applicants increased many times.
However, according to Evgenia Kuzenkova, analyst and editor of Work.ua, two years later the situation on the labor market has changed. Now, instead of a shortage of vacancies, there is a shortage of personnel. The uneven distribution of demand is characterized by the lowest number of vacancies in the regions closest to the front, such as Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, compared to the central and western regions, where the number of jobs is much higher.
For example, in Transcarpathia, the labor market recovered by 167%, which indicates a significant demand for employers in this region.
Doctors, pharmacists, as well as representatives of working professions such as miners, tinsmiths, cutters, sawmillers, tinters, and roofers stand out among the most scarce specialists.
When calling for a return to their homeland, the authorities may not take into account those who were in Ukraine on social benefits, had a disability or had relatives with a disability, and had no other sources of income. After returning, they will most likely become a burden on the budget.
"Currently, this burden has been taken on by other countries, mainly Western European countries, which have provided significant support," says Olga Pyschulina.
Even with the growth in labor demand, not all categories of the population feel this effect, notes Yevgenia Kuzenkova from Work.ua.
"Ukraine currently has not only a shortage of labor, but also a shortage of qualified workers. "Employers get a lot of feedback for jobs that don't require special education, but it's hard to find employees for positions that require certain qualifications or skills," she explains.
The only exception is the IT field. Here the market is oversaturated with the offer. The number of resumes received for one vacancy is 20-30 times higher than the labor market average.
As for the categories of the population that need state support, the Ukrainian economy for the most part cannot cope with the social assistance payments that are needed.
Even more. Since March 1, the government announced a reduction in payments for internally displaced persons (IDPs).
Now there are almost 5 million IDPs in the country, half of them receive monthly payments. These are small amounts - from 2 to 3 thousand hryvnias per month. In Germany or Italy, refugees receive about 300-500 euros per month for each family member. In addition, refugees are often provided with free housing in Western countries.
However, even such sums are a great burden for Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2023, more than 73 billion hryvnias were spent on payments to IDPs from the budget, which is twice as much as the cost of all communal subsidies in the country. From March, only a limited number of people will be able to apply for this support.
Iryna Vereshchuk, Vice Prime Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, said that this is "a demand of our partners."
"Vulnerables should continue to receive benefits, and those who have already, for example, adapted or received housing, or have a job with a high income... approaches should be more fair," Vereshchuk explained.
The government set the bar for high-paying work at the level of 9,444 hryvnias per month per person. Yevhen Sosnovsky, who left occupied Mariupol and lost everything, including his home, expressed his indignation at this decision of the authorities.
"These 9,444 hryvnias should be enough for housing rent in the amount of 12,000 hryvnias, payment of utility services in the amount of 3,000 hryvnias, food, transport, clothes and much more," he said.
"If the government wants to attract people from abroad back to Ukraine, it should first appeal to those who believed in the country and did not leave it."
Programs for the restoration of damaged and destroyed housing in Ukraine work unevenly and inefficiently, much depends on the initiatives of local authorities and foreign donors.
Sosnovsky also complains that those whose homes were destroyed in the occupied territory, like him, do not have a mechanism for receiving any kind of compensation.
And it is likely that the economic situation will not contribute to the fact that the country will be able to provide financial support to those who are most affected.
Currently, almost all the money earned by Ukraine itself is spent on the army. The state has the ability to cover other expenses - for the public sector, medicine, education, pensions - thanks to the funds received from allies.
Last year, to cover the hole in the budget, Kyiv received almost 37.5 billion dollars from international partners and hoped to receive 42 billion this year. However, it is already obvious that the amounts will be smaller than planned. This year, the European Union allocated its share of funds with a long delay, and the United States still has not agreed on its share of aid.
Adequate safety and education for children are key aspects of returning refugees to Ukraine.
Olga from the Kyiv region, who took her three children abroad during the war, notes that until recently she did not even consider the possibility of returning, as educational institutions in her city did not work offline due to the lack of shelter.
"Returning to work full-time with children would be unrealistic," she admits.
"Now the windows in the schools have been covered with sand, and the kindergarten goes to a nearby shelter," the woman adds. - "It is, of course, symbolic, but why wasn't it done earlier? The school actually did not work for one and a half years."
Over the past year, the state has invested a lot of effort in improving the situation with shelters, according to data provided by the Ukrainian Air Force to the Ministry of Education.
More than 83% of kindergartens in Ukraine have shelters, either actually, or are located no further than 100 meters away. In schools, the situation is even better - there are shelters in more than 88% of schools.
The most problems with shelters are in the front-line regions - Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Kherson. Even in places where there is shelter, face-to-face education is not available due to constant shelling.
Cities such as Kharkiv have to resort to projects of underground schools and kindergartens so that children can get the opportunity to study face-to-face. "Storage facilities are a problem," admits Ivanna Kobernyk, co-founder of the "SmartEducation" organization. - "Not in all places where there is shelter, there are enough of them. Therefore, schools work in a second shift or in a mixed format. A few days at school, and a few days remotely."
Whether the Ukrainian education system will have enough places for children who are abroad if their parents are going to return is one of the key questions.
Experts are sure that there will be enough places, both in schools and in kindergartens, as well as in the availability of teachers.
"The education system will be able to cope. We had concerns about this in February, but now we are adapting," says Volodymyr Stadnyk, deputy from the "Servant of the People" party and head of the parliamentary committee on education, science and innovation.
According to his estimates, 3.7 million children currently study in Ukrainian schools. Of them, 2 million are studying face-to-face, approximately 900 thousand - remotely and about 900 thousand - in a mixed format.
According to him, there are about 390,000 children abroad. Of them, 245,000 continue to study remotely in Ukrainian schools.
"If they come back, it won't change anything for them. If their schools were located in dangerous areas or had no shelter, they will still continue to study remotely," Stadnyk explains.
He admits that due to internal migration, the system received an imbalance - children from dangerous areas were moved to safer ones. That is why some schools are almost empty. However, there is no problem of overcrowded schools now, experts are convinced.
According to the Ministry of Education, the number of students in Kyiv has decreased by almost 10,000 in recent years (a total of 286,000 students). In Lviv, the number of children increased by 3,000 (a total of 89,000 children), while in Uzhhorod and Chernivtsi it remained at the same level (17 and 28,000 students, respectively).
"There is a serious shortage of kindergartens in some districts of Kyiv, especially in the Pechersk district," Stadnyk points out.
"There are enough free places in schools," confirms expert Ivanna Kobernyk. - "In gymnasiums and lyceums, where it was previously difficult to get into, you can find a place in the class."
In addition, the system is helped by the opening of exclusively remote classes in all regions to free up physical places for children where it is possible to study face-to-face, notes Stadnyk.
In the rear regions, the demographic crisis, which threatened even before the start of the war, helps, experts add.
"The decline in the number of children in schools was predicted due to the low birth rate, that is, even without the war, the number of children in schools would still decrease. Therefore, there will physically be places in schools if parents decide to return," says Kobernyk.
And he emphasizes that the quality of education offered by Ukrainian schools is an important factor. With limited resources dedicated to safety, quality can suffer.
"Many women stay abroad because of education. Because of the opportunity to be in another system, learn a foreign language. Therefore, an important factor is what content will be filled with this physical availability of seats," the expert adds.
First of all, experts make a key conclusion about the importance of the return of able-bodied persons and their children for the country's economy.
However, the way in which the Ukrainian authorities call on citizens to return is criticized.
"You have to be careful here," notes Olga Pyschulina. "Some dividing lines are beginning to be felt in our country - between those who left and those who remained, those who fought and those who did not fight. We must avoid this split."
Anatoly Amelin criticizes the authorities for treating people as a resource, not as "beneficiaries of the country".
"We treat citizens like slaves, as if it were serfdom," the expert points out. "If we continue to consider citizens as an income resource, then no one will remain in our country. It needs to be changed, and then people will come back."
According to the expert, corruption scandals and high-profile persecution of businessmen do not help the return of citizens. He is convinced that a comfortable business climate is a key factor in attracting people back. And the war is not an obstacle in this.
"Israel or South Korea have been at war since the first day of their existence, and the number of citizens is growing every year, the economy is developing," says Amelin.
"They invested in technology and innovation. Ukraine does not stimulate innovation. As soon as you open a company, the tax authorities immediately come to you, and when you do something, the security forces come to you."
According to the experts of BBC Ukraine, the country will have to fight for the return of its citizens, since many European countries are not interested in their return.
And none of these countries will revise their programs of social support for refugees for the sake of Ukraine, as President Zelensky calls for this.
According to Vyshlinskyi, each group needs its own approach. For those who lost everything during the war, Ukraine has to offer more than just "a place to sleep in the gym and a little social support."
Comprehensive measures are needed here, such as the creation of clusters in safe, but depressed regions before the war with the help of donor funds. In such clusters, business centers with jobs, housing and infrastructure are being built at the same time.
"People can come to work, get housing, settle down and start working immediately," Vyshlinsky suggested.
It will be most difficult to influence conditional labor migrants, for whom the war has become an opportunity to quickly legalize in Western countries.
The group of people who left for security reasons is much more promising. For many of them, the decision to return may depend on the availability of work, schools or kindergartens.
Research by the Razumkov Center shows that the main factors behind the return of Ukrainians from abroad are economic recovery, issues of safety and comfort of life, as well as significant payments to returnees, for example, compensation for housing.
However, the majority of refugees will not be interested in participating in the reconstruction of the country and would prefer an already rebuilt country.
Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M. V. Ptukha, notes that even in the most optimistic scenario, only half of those who left will return.
After the war in the Balkans, only a third of the population returned to their countries.
"If we think that European countries will begin to displace Ukrainians en masse, they will not. They are very interested in such a workforce," the expert says.
