Could a Russian missile attack on a nuclear power plant lead to a nuclear disaster?

Russia's missile strikes on nuclear power plants in Ukraine are causing global concern over the possibility of a nuclear disaster. As a result of the shelling that took place on August 26, there was a targeted attack on nuclear power plants, which provide more than 55% of electricity in Ukraine. Experts, including Mykhailo Gonchar, warn of serious risks and call on the world to take urgent action to prevent a possible nuclear catastrophe.

On August 26, Russia not only tried to hit the United Energy System of Ukraine with a massive and combined missile-drone attack. These were purposeful, but indirect actions aimed at damaging the nuclear power plants of Ukraine, which provide more than 55% of the country's electricity production. Our nuclear power plants are an island of energy stability in Ukraine.

What was Russia trying to do? First, to cut down our power units, without resorting to strikes directly on the NPP or on distribution devices near the NPP, but by trying to destroy the peripheral substations. This is a kind of hybrid way of cutting down nuclear generation. Secondly, in parallel, Russia launched a powerful campaign to misinform the IAEA and discredit Ukraine regarding the situation at the Kursk NPP.

The visit of IAEA head R. Grossi to the Russian nuclear power plant in Kurchatov on August 27 was organized extremely quickly. Despite his statement that the Kursk NPP operates in a "regime close to normal", the head of the Rosatom Likhachev presents his visit as an agreement "...on the IAEA's immediate response to any manifestations of aggression both in Zaporozhye and in the Kursk Region", accusing the Armed Forces of Ukraine of shelling nuclear power plant Some other ambiguous statements by Grossi (regarding the risk of a nuclear incident, regarding the vulnerability of RBMK-type reactors) are interpreted by the Russian side as saying that "the IAEA is on Russia's side."

Russia, acting in an indirect way, tries to circumvent Article 56 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions: Article 56 "Protection of works and installations containing dangerous forces"

1. Works or installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dams and nuclear power plants, shall not be the object of attack, even if these objects are military objects, if such an attack could lead to the release of dangerous forces and , as a result of serious losses among the civilian population. Other military facilities located on or near these works or installations must not be attacked if such an attack could cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and, as a result, serious civilian casualties.

Detailed provisions on ensuring the security of dangerous objects during hostilities are contained in the aforementioned First Additional Protocol of 1977 (AP I) to the Geneva Conventions, as well as in the Second Additional Protocol of 1977 (AP II) and customary international humanitarian law . Nuclear power plants are civilian objects, and as such are protected from direct attack and reprisals (Article 48 API ; Rule 7 CI HL). In case of doubt as to whether a nuclear power plant is used to contribute effectively to hostilities, it should be considered civilian (Art. 52(3) API), even in conflict zones (ICRC API Commentary, para. 2034). The obligation of the parties to an armed conflict to ensure at all times the safety of the civilian population, civilians and civilian objects during all military operations (art. 57(1) API ; rule 15 CI HL) is particularly important when it comes to nuclear power plants. Given the risk of radiation release and subsequent severe consequences for the civilian population, the parties must exercise extreme caution during troop movements, maneuvers and other military operations near such facilities.

What I don't see now are reactions at the official level from Ukraine. All the more so because Russia is bluffing, because if the KurNPP threat had actually taken place, they would have shut down the two operating power units.

But our official nuclear engineers want something again: large-scale construction (read - theft), now in Chigyrin. At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation accuses Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism", while its armed forces have captured and control the largest Ukrainian nuclear power plant, and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation did not demonstrate any intentions to capture the Russian nuclear power plant during the Kursk operation.

However, again, from the official level, we do not see a proper reaction and counteraction to the racist nuclear blackmailers.

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