Will the country survive this winter - Oleksandr Dubovy

For almost seventy years, nuclear energy has been in demand and widespread throughout the world. The development of industry, the increase in the number of people and the rise in prices for fossil fuels in the second half of the last century gave a powerful impetus to the construction of new nuclear power plants and the completion of existing ones. However, this progress was slowed down by the accident at the Fukushima-1 plant, which occurred as a result of the earthquake and tsunami that covered the coast of Japan. Immediately after the accident, anti-nuclear eco-activists forced the governments of some countries to put nuclear projects on hold (Belgium, Italy). And the most radical course to abandon nuclear energy and transition to alternative energy sources was announced in Germany.

However, despite all efforts aimed at the development of renewable energy, neither from an economic point of view, nor within the framework of the program to achieve carbon neutrality of the economy by 2050, green energy could not meet the rapid growth in demand for electricity. In addition, repeated blackouts from Texas to the Balkans have shown how unstable renewable energy sources can be due to climate change and a sharp increase in consumption, how they shake the energy balance and create threats to the population and businesses. Unlike nuclear power plants, which provide basic energy production, while solar and wind farms are unable to do so due to the absence of wind or sun.

In general, all these problems, and the need to sharply reduce the use of Russian gas after the start of a full-scale invasion in 2022, caused the return to the agenda of the issue of nuclear energy, which has already reached "pre-Fukushima" levels and even exceeded them. The USA, France, China, Great Britain, Finland, and Japan currently consider nuclear power as an important component of their energy security and are not going to abandon it. Poland, Turkey, UAE and other countries are planning to build the first nuclear power plants.

Course per atom

In addition to independence from climate change, there are other factors contributing to the renaissance of nuclear power. First of all, after Fukushima, all countries with nuclear power plants, including Ukraine, passed stress tests for compliance with "post-Fukushima" requirements.

Currently, the world is building the most modern power units of the "three plus" generation in terms of reactor safety, which, in addition to providing consumers with an inexpensive, reliable and environmentally friendly source of energy, also work in maneuvering mode. That is, they allow you to reduce or increase the amount of electricity production depending on the load, which is an extremely important option for maintaining the system's efficiency during peak load hours.

Secondly, even considering the tragedies of Fukushima and Chernobyl, nuclear energy remains one of the most environmentally friendly forms of electricity production. Emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants by nuclear power plants (NPP) during the operational phase are close to zero. Whereas the negative impact on air pollution, human health and the environment, for example, from coal-fired power plants has turned out to be much worse and has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people over the past decade.

In addition, the problem of disposal and processing of spent solar panels and wind turbine blades still remains unsettled. Their disposal is expensive and provokes additional emissions of carbon dioxide when transporting parts that have expired. So, the pollution resulting from the disposal of elements of renewable energy sources is actually more than the emissions of traditional energy. And while scientists are trying to solve this problem, landfills of blades and batteries are growing every year.

At the end of the day, the various debates about the future of energy agree on one thing: achieving global climate goals (keeping the global temperature rise below 2°C against pre-industrial levels and making efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C) is impossible without the use of nuclear energy. That is why, on January 1, 2023, the EU confirmed the environmental status of nuclear energy, adding it to the list of clean types of energy in the EU's green taxonomy.

Despite the varying attitudes towards nuclear energy, there is at least one advantage that is hard to deny: it is significantly cheaper than green energy. Germany, which at one time adopted a program to decommission nuclear power plants - partly under pressure from the Greens, partly due to the efforts of Gazprom lobbyists who promoted increased consumption of Russian gas - is now reaping the negative fruits of its reforms. If the German economy shrank by 0.2% in 2023, the French economy, where almost 70% of electricity is produced at nuclear power plants, is on the contrary growing. Experts explain this, in particular, by the increase in the price of electricity in Germany, which is consumed in large volumes by industrial giants. So looking into the future, nuclear power is exactly the source of cheap and clean energy that humanity needs.

Ukraine's energy policy is in question

As an inheritance from the USSR, Ukraine received a powerful nuclear power plant, which made it possible to annually produce about 50% of the country's total electricity. Twelve operating reactors were built in Soviet times, and three more - already in the times of independent Ukraine. This is the sixth reactor at the Zaporizhzhya NPP (1996), the second reactor at the Khmelnytsky NPP (2004) and the fourth reactor at the Rivne NPP (2006). Ranking seventh in the world and fifth in Europe in terms of the number of reactors, Ukraine was one of the largest exporters of electricity to Europe.

However, the war dealt a devastating blow to the Ukrainian energy industry, from which the country will be able to recover only in a few years. Destroyed transformers, destroyed gigawatts of generating capacity - HPP and CHP, which allowed to quickly increase generation in the morning and evening peak hours. Wind and solar energy are expensive and the amount of energy they produce does not cover the country's basic needs. And the import of expensive electricity from Europe is also not enough to fully cover the deficit in the energy system.

In fact, only those NPPs that continue to operate stably remain in the most operational condition. Even the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya NPP cannot penetrate the protective shell of the reactor, which is equipped with all modern reactors. Steel and reinforced concrete reliably protect the most vulnerable parts of the station. In addition, the enemy perfectly understands that a direct missile strike on a nuclear facility will be "suicidal", and the consequences in the event of an emergency will affect not only Ukraine, the EU, but also the aggressor country itself.

Our American partners also recognize the expediency of increasing nuclear energy to cover the electricity deficit. "In the short term, increasing nuclear energy is a completely logical step along with other efforts made by all allies," said Penny Pritzker, the US Special Representative for Ukraine's Economic Recovery. In addition, the development of nuclear energy, in particular the technology of small modular reactors , will show that the country is moving in the same direction as Europe - towards decarbonization and environmental protection. In general, nuclear power generation in Ukraine is quite powerful, stable and economically efficient.

Of course, it is necessary to build new power units, in particular at the Khmelnytskyi NPP. This is a win-win way to provide the country with basic generation for decades. But is this construction the number one priority? After all, the result of their work can be expected only in eight or nine years. In addition, in order to start the construction of the third and fourth power units of the Khmelnytsky NPP, the parliament must adopt a law with an up-to-date financial plan (amounts, sources of coverage) and completion dates.

However, now that people and businesses are facing mass blackouts and a cold and dark winter ahead, we need immediate steps to cover the existing energy deficit. Namely: construction and connection to power grids of small generating units (gas turbine, gas piston, cogeneration, etc.). These will be the saving percentages that will allow us to survive and protect the population, especially large cities, in winter. Moreover, distributed generation from hundreds of small power plants of various types is the best safeguard against large-scale destruction of the energy system due to missile strikes.

However, the Ministry of Energy's actions regarding energy decentralization raise many questions. It is enough to cite one example, when the Ministry of Energy could not turn on the mini-gas turbine thermal power plant, donated to Ukraine by the USA, for sixteen months. Similarly, the officials of the department failed to establish effective protection of the existing energy capacities, and the worst thing is that no one answered for it.

Even more worrying are the actions of the Ministry of Energy aimed at destroying the country's project industry. Thus, thanks to the "efforts" of the ministry, powerful research and design institutions that independently implemented technologically complex tasks in the design and construction of energy complexes completely ceased their activities. In particular, SE "UkrNDPRI promtekhnologiiy", SE "Kyiv Institute of Engineering Research and Research "Energoproekt", Kharkiv Institute "Energoproekt" and others.

Attempts are currently underway to close the last independent design company - the Kyiv Research and Design Institute "Energoproekt" (KIEP), which has been the main designer of nuclear installations for many decades and has unique experience and personnel. The destruction of the KIEP will allow Energoatom NAEC to independently design the completion of the power units of the Khmelnytsky NPP and, at its discretion, to determine corruption amounts directly in the project documentation, freeing it from control by an independent project organization. In general, a country that plans to develop nuclear energy must have a powerful project industry and guarantee it normal working conditions. I hope that the next leadership of the Ministry of Energy will understand this better than the current one.

Therefore, in the short term, the country should focus on the construction of distributed generation, and in the medium and long term, the potential of nuclear energy can and should be used to ensure the recovery of the country's economy, energy security, and the achievement of global goals (fighting climate change). Undoubtedly, an audit and plan for the development of the energy sector is needed, taking into account the rapid, I hope, recovery of the industry. But for this, first of all, professional and responsible management of the industry is needed, which, unfortunately, does not exist today.