US President Donald Trump, known for his pragmatic stance on international politics, is unlikely to impose a solution on Ukraine that would look like a victory for Vladimir Putin in the eyes of the international community. Such a scenario, according to Sky News security and defense analyst Deborah Gaines, would only highlight the West's weakness in the face of an aggressor.
Gaines suggests that Trump may offer the Kremlin a “freeze” of the front line at its current positions. This, she believes, could be a compromise that would reduce the intensity of fighting but at the same time leave the Kremlin in control of the occupied territories.
For Putin, such an agreement would look like a step towards realizing his initial ambitions – capturing the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, including Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, as well as creating guarantees against Ukraine's admission to NATO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is willing to “freeze” the war if Ukraine becomes a NATO member. However, Gaines said such a proposal is unlikely to find support among the Alliance, as it would limit the treaty’s Article 5 to the unoccupied territories of Ukraine.
However, a possible scenario involving NATO in a peacekeeping mission could be considered. This would include the deployment of Alliance troops, including British ones, to ensure a ceasefire and protect the front line.
Trump is keen to demonstrate his effectiveness as a negotiator, so imposing a compromise that would look like a defeat for Ukraine is unlikely. His goal will likely be to create a truce format that avoids further escalation while satisfying pragmatic US interests.
Freezing the conflict without clear guarantees for Ukraine may be a temporary solution that will only postpone new Russian aggression. At the same time, with clear international guarantees, this scenario may give Kyiv time to recover and strengthen its positions.
