On November 21, Russia first used the Oreshnyk intercontinental ballistic missile against Ukraine, in particular, by attacking the Dnipro. This event sparked a lively debate among military experts about whether Ukraine is capable of effectively countering such threats.
The Oreshnyk missile is a new development of the Russian military-industrial complex designed for intercontinental attacks. According to the GUR, Russia currently has up to 10 such missiles. However, their serial production remains in question, since the technological and economic potential of the Russian Federation is significantly limited, as noted by aviation expert Valery Romanenko.
Despite the high technical characteristics of the Oreshnyk, Ukrainian air defense can try to repel it. Although the Patriot systems are not designed to destroy ICBMs, they can be used to try to intercept them.
Kostyantyn Kryvolap, an aviation analyst, noted that to combat such missiles, Ukraine needs more modern systems, such as:
- THAAD (USA): one of the most powerful anti-missile defense systems capable of shooting down missiles at altitudes of up to 200 km.
- "Aegis" (USA): ship system operating at closer distances.
- "Strilets-3" (Israel): similar to THAAD, but with some unique features.
Kryvolap noted that even the most modern American GMD system has only a 55-60% success rate in destroying ICBMs. This is due to the difficulty of interception at high altitudes, where the warhead moves at great speed.
Despite the demonstration of the "Oreshnyk", Russia faces significant difficulties in setting up serial production of such missiles. Experts believe that economic sanctions, technological isolation and lack of resources significantly limit the Russian Federation's capabilities in this direction.
Ukraine continues to work on strengthening its air defense system. In parallel with this, negotiations with the allies continue regarding the supply of the latest defense complexes capable of effectively countering threats similar to the "Oreshnyk".
