During two years on the front line, soldier Ilya rested for only 25 days. "We need rotation or adequate rest to recover," the Financial Times quoted the Ukrainian fighter as saying. He claims that the prospect of endless service is one of the reasons why many Ukrainian men avoid mobilization.
According to the FT, before the new wave of mobilization, during which it is planned to involve up to 500 thousand military personnel, the parliament must adopt a new law on mobilization. After the first reading, more than 4,000 changes were made to it. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine explained to the British newspaper that half a million mobilized people are needed, first of all, to replace 330,000 exhausted fighters on the front line, and the rest - to compensate for losses and other military needs.
Currently, as the FT notes, only men over the age of 27 can be on the front lines, many of whom are volunteers. Therefore, the average age of Ukrainian defenders on the front line is about 40 years old.
Ukraine has a smaller share of millennials and Generation Z (born from the early 1980s to the present) compared to other countries, which is explained by the decline in the birth rate after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The proposal to lower the age of mobilization to 25 has drawn sharp criticism from those who believe that sending young men to the front is suicide for the nation.
Recently, President Zelenskyi announced the official number of casualties on the front line - 31 thousand. But the real number may be much higher - at least several senior US officials have previously claimed the death toll to be at least twice as high.
According to the information provided by the Economic Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament and according to an article in the Financial Times, out of more than 11 million people of draft age (from 25 to 60 years old), only 3.7 million are subject to mobilization.
Others are already at the front, have disabilities, are abroad or are employed at critical enterprises.
The authorities of Ukraine understand the importance of a careful approach to mobilization, since the loss of taxpayers due to departure abroad or illegal employment can deprive the budget of significant revenues.
Research conducted by Info Sapiens shows that, in addition to the fear of being wounded or killed, Ukrainian men are deterred by insufficient training, an indefinite term of service and a lack of adequate weapons for combat operations.
The new mobilization bill attempts to respond to these concerns. It limits the term of service to three years with a three-month minimum training for combat operations.
In addition, some brigades are considering ability-based mobilization to attract new soldiers to the Army. However, the delays in American and European military aid, which have led to the loss of positions on some areas of the front, are beyond Kyiv's control and are making the situation worse.
In addition to lowering the age requirement for mobilization and introducing an electronic registry that will block driver's licenses for evading service, the mobilization bill has another controversial proposal - the so-called economic reservation, or the exclusion from mobilization of those considered critical to the economy.
Initially, this provision was supposed to be included in the draft law on mobilization, however, taking into account the reaction of the public, it may be introduced by a separate law or government decision.
Today, 550,000 to 700,000 workers are "booked" in Ukraine under the new system, which will require a financial contribution to ensure victory - the soldiers will need to pay a certain amount of taxes from wages or a fixed monthly contribution.
However, the head of the parliamentary committee on security Oleksandr Zavitnevich warns that the authorities should carefully consider this issue. "Every penny counts, but it has to be part of the overall solution. There are those who believe that this can divide society into rich and poor," FT quotes Zavitnevich as saying.
According to the calculations of the economic committee of the parliament, if about 2 million people paid a monthly special contribution of up to 20 thousand hryvnias, the budget could receive from 200 to 350 billion hryvnias per year.
The head of the committee, Dmytro Natalukha, admits that such plans are subject to sharp criticism, since only those who cannot afford it will be mobilized. However, he emphasizes that Ukraine needs to find a way to attract funds, and the economic reservation is not intended to "save" people from mobilization, but to provide additional financial resources for the army.
According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, additional mobilization in 2024 will cost Ukraine approximately 800 billion hryvnias. This will only increase the already significant deficit of the Ukrainian budget, especially given the delay in American military aid, the decision on which is blocked by Republicans in Congress.
