Belarus has launched a large-scale test of the combat readiness of its armed forces, which, according to Alexander Lukashenko, will last at least until spring. Formally, this is an assessment of the army's compliance with modern standards, but the nature of the exercises and their duration are causing concern in Ukraine.
During the inspection, the Belarusian military is practicing the use of drones, electronic warfare equipment, and is also bringing in reservists. This is not a routine exercise, but a comprehensive training that is as close as possible to the conditions of real combat operations.
The Ukrainian side is closely monitoring the activity of the Belarusian army, since Belarus has played a supporting but important role in Russia's military infrastructure since the beginning of the full-scale war. It was from Belarusian territory that missile strikes were carried out on the northern regions of Ukraine in 2022, and the logistics of Russian troops for a long time passed through Belarusian railways.
Although the presence of Russian units in Belarus has since been reduced, Minsk continues to provide its territory as a military base. This includes training grounds, barracks, transport routes, and infrastructure support.
Despite close military cooperation with Moscow, the Belarusian army is not directly involved in hostilities against Ukraine. The reason is the internal situation in Belarus itself. The war remains extremely unpopular among the population, and sending soldiers outside the country carries the risk of internal destabilization for the regime.
At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, some Belarusian military and officers openly opposed the country's involvement in the war. Some of them left the service or left the country altogether. This factor continues to deter Lukashenko from directly participating in the war with live force.
Refusal to send soldiers does not mean neutrality. Belarusian industry works for the needs of the Russian army, and the country's territory is used for drone launches and placement of elements of the strike infrastructure. In the fall of 2025, Russian medium-range missiles were deployed in Belarus, which are officially declared as "defensive".
In addition, during the current exercises, the Belarusian authorities announced their intention to strengthen border security with Ukraine and invest in new military facilities near the border areas. The construction of training grounds and the modernization of checkpoints create additional risks for the northern direction.
For Ukraine, the main problem is the lack of clear guarantees. Lukashenko publicly assures that he does not plan to go to war, but at the same time maintains full military integration with Russia. This forces the Ukrainian command to keep the northern border on high alert and to plan potential threat scenarios.
Even without a direct invasion from Belarusian territory, the very possibility of such a development forces Ukraine to maintain significant forces in the north, which affects the overall defense configuration.
The situation around Belarus will remain a factor of strategic uncertainty in the coming months. Ukraine and its partners will continue to closely monitor developments, as any change in Minsk's position could have serious consequences for regional security.
