Any attempts to limit the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine within the framework of potential peace talks could pose serious risks for Ukraine, former SBU officer and military expert Ivan Stupak said on Channel 24, commenting on statements by European diplomats regarding the possible parameters of peace agreements.
According to Stupak, behind the wording of “limiting the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” may be a mechanism that will give Russia actual access to control of the Ukrainian army.
“ We must understand that the following is read between the lines: special groups will be created that will control the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is not only about people - it is also about planes, missiles. And with a probability of 95%, these groups will include representatives of the Russian Federation. This is completely unacceptable for Ukraine ,” the expert emphasized.
Stupak reacted to the words of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaia Kallas, who previously stated that in the event of a limitation on the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia should also reduce its army. According to the expert, such expectations are unrealistic.
“ The Russian Federation is unlikely to make any cuts. Their army now has 1.5 million. This is a colossal number. For comparison: Poland has 200 thousand, Germany has 180 thousand. Before the invasion, Ukraine had 250 thousand ,” Stupak noted.
At the same time, he stressed that even a limit of 800,000 personnel would not be critical — the main issue is the state’s ability to financially maintain such an army.
“ 800,000 is a lot. We simply won’t be able to pull that number ourselves ,” the analyst said.
Stupak added that after the end of active hostilities, the size of the Ukrainian army will be reduced to the level provided by funding. But another possibility is also possible: Ukraine could cooperate with the EU on financial support for a large army if Europe is interested in Ukraine remaining a shield on the eastern border.
“ If the Europeans want to see us as a country that protects the eastern borders of the Alliance and are ready to pay for it, there are no questions. We can maintain an army of a million. But they have to pay for it. In my opinion, this would be a great deal ,” the expert concluded.
