No significant changes are expected in the Ukrainian foreign exchange market in the last week of autumn. As noted by Taras Lesovy, Head of the Treasury Department of Globus Bank, the National Bank continues to successfully maintain balance, preventing sudden fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate.
Expert forecasts
According to Lesovoy, the hryvnia to dollar exchange rate will remain stable, despite the projected inflation at 10% by the end of 2024. The official dollar exchange rate on December 1 is expected to be within 41.5-41.6 UAH/dollar, which means a potential increase of 1% compared to the beginning of November.
On the interbank market, exchange rate fluctuations are forecast to remain within the range of UAH 41.2-41.7/USD and UAH 43.5-45/EUR. The cash market will demonstrate similar dynamics with rates in the range of UAH 41.2-41.8/USD and UAH 45-47.5/EUR.
Influencing factors
- The role of the National Bank : the regulator is ready to intervene in the event of unmotivated demand or chaotic changes in the market, ensuring exchange rate stability.
- Seasonal factors : discounts and preparations for the holidays will increase the number of currency sellers, which will help balance demand.
- Reduced supply from exporters : the tax payment period will temporarily affect the currency supply, which will require more active involvement from the regulator.
Daily changes in interbank rates are expected to be within 0.05-0.15 UAH, in banks - up to 0.1-0.2 UAH, and in exchangers - up to 0.3 UAH. Weekly deviation may not exceed 1-1.5% of the initial rate.
