Ukraine is experiencing one of the deepest demographic crises in its history. It began long before the full-scale war, but it was the military actions that turned it into a catastrophe of national scale. This was told in an interview by Lidia Tkachenko, a leading researcher at the M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, candidate of economic sciences.
According to Tkachenko, in the near future, one should not count on the mass return of Ukrainian labor migrants. Most of them have settled abroad, integrated into new societies and do not see the conditions for returning.
In addition, Ukraine is not attractive to foreign workers: the standard of living is low, salaries do not compete with even the most modest European ones, and economic stability is absent.
“If they don’t try to enter the country, it’s not a sign of strength, but of weakness of the economy,” the demographer emphasizes. Even after the war, according to her, migrants who arrive will rather use Ukraine as a “springboard” for further movement to the EU.
Problems with mortality and life expectancy are another sore topic. If in 2020 the average life expectancy in Ukraine was 76 years for women and 66 for men, then in 2024 this figure dropped to 64 years in total (57 years for men, almost 71 for women). For comparison: in EU countries men live on average 79 years, women - 84.5. The highest figure is in Sweden - over 82 years for men.
"Ukraine was 10 years behind Europe even before the war. Now this gap has only increased. We have lost not only people, but also years of life," emphasizes Tkachenko.
According to experts, the labor shortage in Ukraine ranges from 300 thousand to several million people. However, this does not mean that employers are ready to raise salaries or create comfortable conditions. “When employers complain that there are no workers, often behind this is the desire for people to work for pennies. This is reminiscent of feudalism - if they could, they would take away passports,” says the expert.
At the same time, inequality in wages persists in Ukraine: salaries in medicine and education are lower than in agriculture or trade, although it is in the budget sectors that the highest requirements for professionalism and workload are imposed.
Due to meager pensions — an average of 3,000–5,000 hryvnias — almost 30% of pensioners continue to work. They are hired for positions that do not require high qualifications and are often paid less than other workers, arguing that they “have another source of income.”.
Tkachenko warns: this practice can lead to even greater wage dumping in the labor market.
Ukraine is in dire need of skilled workers in technical professions, but most young people consider office or service work to be “normal.”
“People are getting used to working in factories — it has become exotic. When they were recruiting drivers for the Kyiv metro, only one woman graduated from the courses. This is telling,” the demographer notes.
The Great War not only claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, but also exhausted those who remained. Constant stress, emotional exhaustion, uncertainty about the future — all of this, according to Tkachenko, “will be reflected in the country’s demographic picture for a long time to come.”.
Even after the end of hostilities, restoring Ukraine's demographic potential may take decades.
