Ukraine has long been in a difficult demographic situation, which the full-scale war has only worsened. This was stated by Lidia Tkachenko, a leading researcher at the M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
According to the expert, the country's demographic problems are not limited to low birth rates. Short life expectancy plays a significant role, especially among men. Even before the war, average life expectancy in Ukraine lagged behind the EU countries by 10 years. Some positive dynamics were observed in 2007–2008, but it quickly changed to a deterioration in indicators.
In addition to direct losses from the fighting, Ukraine has faced a mass exodus of citizens abroad. Estimates suggest that the labor shortage ranges from 300,000 to several million people. At the same time, more than 10 million people remain payers of the Unified Social Contribution, some of them even while abroad. At the same time, the structure of the economy is dominated by employment in agriculture and trade, sectors with low productivity and pay. Salaries in such critical areas as education and medicine are lower than in agriculture. Tkachenko notes that this situation is abnormal, especially given the high qualifications and emotional stress of employees in the budget sector.
Ukrainian industry continues to decline. Many people no longer have the skills or desire to work in the manufacturing sector. Public perception has shifted towards office work, and work at a machine is now perceived as the exception rather than the norm. The problem of labor shortage is compounded by the fact that employers are often unwilling to pay decent wages. This creates the illusion of a shortage, which is actually the result of businesses’ unwillingness to invest in workers. Often, conditions resemble feudal ones, with minimal benefits and a lack of social guarantees.
Regarding immigration, Tkachenko is skeptical about the possibility of attracting foreign workers. She notes that Ukraine does not have a colonial past, so it cannot count on a flow of migrants, as is the case in France or the UK. Salaries in Ukraine are not high enough to compete for foreign specialists. Even simplifying citizenship procedures is unlikely to radically change the situation. The return of Ukrainian citizens from abroad after the war is also not guaranteed. Much will depend on the policies of the host countries and the ability of Ukrainians to gain a foothold there. Survey data often do not reflect real intentions - answers are based more on emotions than on specific plans. Another worrying trend is the growth in the share of working pensioners - about 30% of pension recipients continue to work. The reason is low pension payments. In most cases, pensions amount to 3-5 thousand hryvnias per month, which does not allow covering even basic needs. The situation in the field of life expectancy is also worsening. According to estimates for 2024, the average life expectancy in Ukraine is 64 years, in particular, 57 years for men and almost 71 for women. This is significantly lower than in the countries of the European Union. For example, in Sweden the average life expectancy for men exceeds 82 years, in France - over 80.
The scientist emphasizes that the sharp reduction in life expectancy in Ukraine is caused not only by the war, but also by emotional exhaustion, which leads to an increase in the number of cardiovascular, mental and other diseases. In addition, men have more bad habits, are more likely to work in difficult and dangerous jobs, take less care of their health and are worse at experiencing stress.
In 2024, a demographic development strategy was approved in Ukraine. But, according to Tkachenko, without serious changes in the structure of the economy, wage policy, and approaches to social security, positive changes in demography will remain unattainable.
