Over the past two years, Ukraine's population has decreased from 42 to 35 million people in 1991, said Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Ukrainian State Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems.
Gladun noted that this figure roughly coincides with the UN data on 6.5 million Ukrainian refugees abroad. However, it is important to note that the mentioned number of 42 million referred to the official estimate of the population in the territory controlled by Ukraine (excluding Crimea and part of Donbas) and was not limited to 1991.
Previously, a different view was generally accepted in expert circles, that the real population of Ukraine was smaller, as millions of people had left for work abroad. Such experts estimated the number of people who actually lived in the territory controlled by Ukraine until February 24, 2022, at between 35 and 38 million.
Regarding Gladun's predictions, he expressed the opinion that Europe will be reluctant to accept refugees after the war, noting that many countries will pursue policies aimed at keeping Ukrainians in their countries, especially given their active adaptation.
He also predicts that after the end of the war in Ukraine, migration flows are possible, when some men return to their families abroad.
The increase in mortality in Ukraine is explained not only by losses from hostilities, but also by a decline in the quality of medical care and an increase in cases of cardiovascular diseases.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice, over two years of war in the territories controlled by Ukraine, more than a million deaths were registered: in 2022 - 541.7 thousand, in 2023 - 496.2 thousand. The decrease in this indicator in 2023 is due to the decrease in the number of regions that experienced military operations, according to Gladun.
It is important to note that in the pre-war year of 2021, the mortality rate was even higher – 714,263 people, according to the State Statistics Service, but they also included those regions that were captured by Russia after the invasion began.
Regarding government statistics on military deaths, Gladun does not have accurate information because it is confidential, but he believes it should be taken into account because the families of the deceased were issued death certificates.
The birth rate has also declined significantly, falling by 31.5% compared to pre-war 2021 and by 9% compared to the previous year.
