Ukraine is facing the catastrophic consequences of a demographic crisis that began long before the full-scale invasion of Russia in 2022. However, it was the war that became the key factor that significantly worsened the situation. According to Der Spiegel , almost seven million Ukrainians were forced to leave the country due to hostilities, which became the largest demographic exodus in modern history.
It is noted that the population of Ukraine began to age in the 1960s, the situation was worsened by the economic collapse of the 1990s, when the Soviet Union collapsed, because "millions of women and men were afraid for their future", so they gave birth to fewer children or emigrated.
And Russia's full-scale war, which began in February 2022, the publication writes, "turned the demographic crisis into a catastrophe." And he cites the following data: almost seven million people have fled abroad, at least five million Ukrainians now live under Russian occupation, tens of thousands of civilians and up to 100,000 soldiers have died.
If in the early 1990s, 51.5 million people lived in Ukraine, now only 29 million live in the territory controlled by Kyiv, the article says.
Ella Libanova, a leading demographer and head of the Institute of Demography and Social Research in Kyiv, said that the population of an industrialized country begins to decline when the birth rate falls below 2.1 children per woman. According to her calculations, in the EU it is slightly less than 1.5, and in Ukraine, since the beginning of the war, this indicator has fallen below one.
According to Libanova, depopulation is "to a certain extent inevitable", because "the population is simply too old". At the same time, she says, this trend is characteristic not only of Ukraine. In particular, Russia is struggling with similar problems, but its population is almost four times larger.
The expert named the means to fight against an even sharper reduction of the population. In her opinion, "not only Ukrainians, but also people from other countries should be encouraged to return." An improvement in the quality of life can also contribute to an increase in the birth rate.
However, for this to happen, the war must first end and security guarantees must appear, Libanova added. After all, it is unlikely that anyone will return there, the threat of an attack will remain, and not only will not return, but an even greater number of people will flee.
Joining the EU would be important for economic prospects, Libanova believes:
"It would stimulate growth and modernize the economy."
The demographic situation in Ukraine: the latest news
As we reported earlier, the departure of boys under the age of 18 will be an additional blow to the demographic development of Ukraine, although not as serious as the mass departure in the first months of the war. Oleksiy Pozniak, a senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Research, believes so.
In Ukraine, there are 286 deaths per 100 births, and this is a bad result, says Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director for scientific work at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems. But, according to him, it is very difficult to expect something better during the war.
Demographer Gladun believes that no one knows for sure how many people lived in Ukraine as of 2024, as it is difficult to calculate. Roughly, it was about a little more than 34 million people.
