During the last two years, the population of Ukraine decreased from 42 to 35 million people in 1991, said Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Ukrainian State Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems.
Hladun noted that this figure roughly coincides with UN data on 6.5 million Ukrainian refugees abroad. However, it is important to note that the mentioned number of 42 million referred to the official estimate of the population in the territory controlled by Ukraine (not including Crimea and parts of Donbas) and was not limited to 1991.
Before that, another point of view was generally accepted in expert circles, that the real population in Ukraine is smaller, because millions of people have gone abroad to earn money. Such experts estimated the number of 35 to 38 million people who actually lived in the territory controlled by Ukraine until February 24, 2022.
Regarding Gladun's predictions, he expressed the opinion that Europe will be reluctant to accept refugees after the war, noting that many countries will follow policies aimed at keeping Ukrainians in their countries, especially given their active adaptation.
He also predicts that after the end of the war in Ukraine, migration flows are possible, when some men will return to their families abroad.
The increase in mortality in Ukraine is explained not only by losses from hostilities, but also by a decrease in the quality of medical care and an increase in the number of cardiovascular diseases.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice, over a million deaths were registered in the territories controlled by Ukraine during the two years of the war: in 2022 – 541.7 thousand, in 2023 – 496.2 thousand. The decrease of this indicator in 2023 is caused by the decrease in the number of regions that have undergone military operations, Gladun believes.
It is important to note that in the pre-war year 2021, the death rate was even higher - 714,263 people, according to the State Statistics Service, but they also included those regions that were captured by Russia after the beginning of the invasion.
Regarding the government's statistics on military deaths, Gladun does not have exact information because it is confidential, but he believes it should be taken into account because death certificates were issued to the families of the dead.
The birth rate also declined significantly, down 31.5% from pre-war 2021 and 9% from the previous year.
