Over the past month, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has made a significant increase in the dollar exchange rate, which may cause anxiety among the population and economic experts. According to the latest data, this week the non-cash exchange rate of the dollar at the interbank reached UAH 40.67/$ and went down to UAH 40.47/$, while trading on the Bloomberg site ended at UAH 40.55/$. Such a decision of the National Bank of Ukraine raises questions about the possible consequences for the Ukrainian economy and consumer inflation.
Over the course of a month, the official exchange rate of the dollar increased by almost UAH 1 (by 99 kopecks): on May 1, it was UAH 39.5151/$, and on the 31st, it was already UAH 40.5001/$.
Also, the American currency rose in price by almost 1 hryvnia in May, if you look at the dynamics of non-cash quotes on Bloomberg - from UAH 39.57/$ to UAH 40.55/$.
All this happened on a noticeable increase in demand for the dollar.
Today, the volume of trading on Bloomberg amounted to $178.7 million, for this week - $1.3 billion, for the month - $4.2 billion. Most of this demand, as before, was covered by the National Bank from its reserves. According to a preliminary estimate, in May he sold more than $3 billion at the interbank, although in April it was only $2.3 million. So, based on the results of the month, we can see a new reduction in the gold and foreign currency reserves of the NBU, the total volume of which in April decreased by 3.1% - to $42.4 billion
Several times during May, large foreign currency purchases were made on the cashless market for Ukraine's military purposes, but business demand also increased - both for current import needs and due to the removal of a number of currency restrictions. First of all, those that enable companies to more freely repay old loans to foreign partners/financial institutions, which was prohibited immediately at the beginning of the great war (National Bank Resolution No. 18 of February 24, 2022).
In the last week, banks have also noted an increase in demand for the dollar from the population. Ukrainians have become more active in buying cash dollars at cash registers as their price increases and non-cash dollars on cards. At the same time, the conversion of hryvnia deposits into foreign currency became more active as their terms expired.
The banks believe that the NBU may try to fix the hryvnia at the current values in June, referring to the average annual exchange rate of UAH 40.7/$ laid down in the Ukrainian state budget for 2024.
"40.7 hryvnias/$ is the average rate for the year, not the limit, and in theory the interbank may even exceed the mark of 41 hryvnias/$, but the price tag should still roll back. We observe devaluation in jerks: first the exchange rate stagnates for a long time, and then it collapses in a matter of weeks. Everything happens under the control of the National Bank, and therefore with its approval. They say that this is being done to increase tax collections from exporters, more profitable conversion of international aid and under the pressure of the IMF, which demanded from our Cabinet not only to wait for infusions from external donors, but also to actively use internal sources. In particular, with the help of devaluation. However, all this must be done in a balanced way so as not to greatly accelerate inflation, since the increase in the dollar exchange rate turns into an increase in prices, for which the NBU is responsible, and together with the increase in electricity tariffs, we can see a noticeable deterioration of this indicator. Therefore, in June, the National Bank will probably try to slow down the rise in the price of the dollar, otherwise it will be difficult to curb inflation," the chairman of the board of one of the banks analyzed the situation for "Strane".
On the black market, the selling rate of the dollar today rose from UAH 41.0/$ to UAH 41.04/$, and the buying rate - from UAH 40.3 to 40.5/$. Here, since the beginning of May, the currency has appreciated by 1.2 hryvnias, because on May 1, it could still be bought for 39.8 hryvnias/$.
At bank counters, the average selling price of a cash dollar at the beginning of May was UAH 39.90/$, and the maximum was UAH 40.1/$. Today, May 31, the average exchange rate was UAH 41.11/$, and the maximum was UAH 41.40/$, while the currency was bought within the limits of UAH 39.40-41/$.
The two largest state banks, Privatbank and Oschadbank, set the buying/selling rates at 40.50-41.10 UAH/$ and 40.50-41.15 UAH/$, respectively.
The maximum card sale rate at banks this Friday reached UAH 41.55/$, it was set by Acordbank, and the minimum was at UAH 40.85/$ at Ukrgazbank. A range of UAH 39.90-40.95/$ was formed during the purchase.
