The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) continues to maintain a record high level of foreign exchange reserves, but the hryvnia exchange rate may fluctuate significantly until the end of the year. Olena Bilan, an economist at Dragon Capital and a member of the Supervisory Board of the Center for Economic Strategy, noted that, despite some unpredictable changes, the end of the year may bring new records.
According to Bilan, although her initial forecast for the end of the year indicated the hryvnia exchange rate at the level of 42 hryvnias per dollar, the current situation may lead to an increase in this indicator to 43 or even 44 hryvnias per dollar. "My forecast was UAH 42, but the situation is changing. Next week, we may receive new information about the interest rate from the NBU," she said.
Despite this, Bilan stressed that one should not expect an uncontrolled collapse of the hryvnia. The NBU continues to keep currency reserves at record levels, which ensures exchange rate stability even in conditions of uncertainty.
Today, July 22, the official exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia is 41.49 hryvnias per dollar, which is a new historical maximum. At the same time, the hryvnia is strengthening against the euro.
Economist Yuriy Gaidai notes that the NBU applies the regime of managed flexibility of the exchange rate. This means that the hryvnia exchange rate is largely determined by the policy of the National Bank. Gaidai also points to a significant trade deficit, which affects the devaluation of the hryvnia.
Thus, until the end of the year, the hryvnia may continue to fluctuate, but the NBU maintains control over the situation, which allows avoiding critical falls of the currency.
