Among Ukrainian refugees abroad, 61% say their earnings are higher than before the full-scale invasion. Despite the overall reduction in aid received, around 71% of refugees still receive some level of support.
According to a study by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), at the end of January 2024, 4.9 million Ukrainians were abroad because of the war. CES identified four groups of refugees.
The first group is people from war zones (15%). These are persons who were forced to leave their homes due to active hostilities or occupation of territories. They are represented more often than others by women aged 25-49 who left with children and live in Poland. This group is also more likely to be employed or looking for work. People from war zones are less likely to return to Ukraine: only 13.8% plan to return, compared to 26.2% among all refugees. Their decision to return depends on creating the conditions for it.
The second group is self-sufficient (30%). These people receive the least amount of assistance from the host country and more often pay their own rent. They also more often work remotely for Ukrainian companies or full-time in the host country. This group has a relatively higher level of income compared to the previous period. Most of them plan to return to Ukraine: 45.1% definitely plan to return, and 64.3% express a desire or plan to do so.
Older people (28%) This group mainly consists of people aged 50+, most of whom do not have a higher education. Compared to other categories, they rarely receive social benefits, and those that do receive are not always enough even for basic needs. These people have deeper ties to Ukraine than other groups: 62.8% of them returned to Ukraine after leaving, compared to 46.4% among all refugees.
People in the process of integration (27%) These are Ukrainians who are actively settling in the country where they are. They attend language courses and other educational institutions more often than others, and often do not yet work. Generous social support allows them to focus on their studies: the majority (67.3%) have government housing (compared to 37.8% among all refugees), 82.8% receive social benefits (compared to 39.5% among all refugees) , and 85.2% attend language courses (compared to 35.9% among all). Many representatives of this group are in countries with generous social support. For example, their share in Germany is 40%. Ukrainians in this group are less connected to their homeland and less inclined to return: only 16.5% of them definitely plan to return.
The head of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, Vasyl Voskoboynyk, notes that the end of the war and even the beginning of active reconstruction of the country do not guarantee rapid economic growth. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy for 2032, the GDP of Ukraine will amount to 262 billion dollars. For comparison, the Polish GDP last year was 700 billion dollars, and in eight years it can be predicted that the volume of the Polish economy will reach 1 trillion dollars. This means that after eight years, the GDP of Poland will be almost four times higher than the GDP of Ukraine. It also confirms that in Poland, as well as in other countries such as Germany, there will be better living conditions, higher salaries and a higher level of social protection than in Ukraine. As a result, Ukrainians will continue to go abroad in search of a better life.
Forecasts regarding the return of citizens to Ukraine are pessimistic. Even after the end of the war, migration will not stop. Analysts of the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) have determined how many Ukrainians can go abroad after the lifting of the ban on men going abroad. They calculated that an additional 87,600 Ukrainians could go abroad under the optimistic scenario, 115,000 under the average scenario, and 154,900 under the pessimistic scenario.
Vasyl Voskoboynyk points out that in order to prevent further migration, Ukraine must solve three main problems, which are the most important for citizens. First, it is a job that allows you to earn enough money. Secondly, it is housing, since the lack of housing prevents people from returning or settling in Ukraine. The third is the infrastructure, including the education system. Vasyl Voskoboynyk emphasizes that many parents consider the level of education before deciding to return, as the education system in Ukraine has its shortcomings. It also encourages the removal of children from the country.
According to Vasyl Voskoboynyk, the forecasts for return and migration are very pessimistic. After the end of the war, about 30% of citizens will return home, but a new wave of migration is expected. The outflow of Ukrainians abroad will continue, and it will not stop in the near future.
