The dollar continues to set records, but this is only the beginning of a long journey

Banks are already offering rates above 40 UAH/$. The foreign exchange market is witnessing a new appreciation of the dollar. Last week, the interbank rate on the Bloomberg platform (main) rose from 38.80 UAH/$ to 39.45 UAH/$, and this Monday, trading began at 39.47 UAH/$. By noon, quotes had reached 39.50 UAH/$, and trading closed at 39.61 UAH/$.

Against this backdrop, the official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate jumped by 17 kopecks today, and the National Bank set it for tomorrow, April 16, at 39.5737 UAH/$ – a new historical high. For comparison: last Tuesday, April 9, the official rate was 38.99 UAH/$.

The trading volume on Bloomberg today changed little compared to Friday - it was $161.3 million versus $160 million. However, the NBU's own foreign exchange sales from foreign exchange reserves increased noticeably; on Monday they were estimated at a little less than $100 million, which is higher than the average figure of last week of $75 million. In total, from April 8 to 12, the National Bank, according to the official report, had to throw $378.3 million into the interbank market.

This is considered the main reason for the rise in the price of the American currency - the NBU's increasing sales of gold and foreign exchange reserves, although at the same time some pressure on the regulator is not ruled out.

“Everyone knows that the National Bank remains the key currency seller on the interbank market, daily calculating the rate of its dollar sales according to its internal (secret) formula, which is directly tied to the volume of its sales from reserves. The more it sold, the higher the dollar rose, and vice versa. This ensures some semblance of a market and exchange rate flexibility. Plus, they say that from time to time the authorities ask the NBU to gradually devalue the hryvnia, which is necessary for a more profitable conversion of international aid. Everyone remembers that the state budget for 2024 included an average annual rate of 40.7 UAH/$, and it is clear that we will reach it. Not now, maybe in the second half of the year,” the treasury director of a large bank told Strane.

The black market rate also rose along with the interbank rate. It opened with sales of 39.43 UAH/$, peaked at 39.73 UAH/$, and by the evening had fallen to 39.68 UAH/$.

In bank cash desks, the dollar rose in price by 15-20 kopecks today. The maximum selling rates reached 39.65-39.99 UAH/$, set by MetaBank, Kominbank and A-Bank. The average rates were in the range of 39.65-39.95 UAH/$, and the minimum was 39.60 UAH/$ (FUIB, Pivdenny Bank, Creditwest Bank). The buy-back rate was in a wide range – 38.65-39.50 UAH/$.

Almost all state-owned banks kept average prices. For example, Privatbank set buy/sell prices within the range of 39.10-39.70 UAH/$, Oschadbank – 39.30-39.85 UAH/$, although Sense Bank’s rates reached 39.40-39.90 UAH/$.

Bank card rates have overcome the psychological level of 40, although only one bank has done so far. Namely, Acordbank set the card sale rate at 40.40 UAH/$, and the average range on the market was significant - from 39.20 UAH/$ (Ukrsibbank) to 39.99 UAH/$ (Kredobank). On redemption, card rates were within 38.42-39.85 UAH/$.

The average selling rate of the dollar for current accounts of individuals within the monthly limit of UAH 50,000 with the right of instant withdrawal reached UAH 39.4/$ (including additional commissions). The minimum price tag here was UAH 39.24/$ (Ukrainian Capital Bank), and the maximum was UAH 40.54/$ (Avangard Bank). At the same time, more than 20 banks kept prices above UAH 40/$.

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