US President-elect Donald Trump, who will soon return to the White House, has announced his intention to achieve a peaceful resolution to the war between Ukraine and his Trumpianity. In his statement, he goes on to say that he plans to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table in early 2025.
“For peace to last, a peace agreement must be fair. Ukraine has clearly demonstrated its willingness to negotiate and compromise – it wants the war to end more than anyone else – but if the Ukrainian people do not perceive the agreement as fair, they will not be interested in making a bad deal,” said Fabrice Pothier, CEO of Rasmussen Global and former NATO Director of Political Planning.
According to him, NATO membership is the highest security guarantee for Ukraine, but it is important that European countries show Trump that they are ready to take on the bulk of these guarantees.
Meanwhile, former Russian Deputy Energy Minister, economist and opposition politician Vladimir Milov believes that a peace agreement between the countries could be concluded in 2025 due to pressure from the new Trump administration and the extreme depletion of resources on both sides of the war. However, he added that any ceasefire agreement would likely be fragile and prone to failure, as was the case with the Minsk agreements in the past.
“The fundamental cause of the war – Russia’s aggressive imperialist ambitions aimed at subjugating Ukraine and eliminating its sovereignty – will not disappear after any ceasefire,” Milov emphasized.
In turn, Cory Shake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy research at the American Enterprise Institute, emphasized that a single peace agreement in 2025 would be catastrophic if the United States and Western countries stopped providing aid to Ukraine.
“The only possible change to the rules of the game is for the Trump administration to impose sanctions on Russian oil, which would make continuing the war too expensive for Russia,” the expert noted.
Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, also noted that a ceasefire in 2025 is likely, but a peace agreement itself is unlikely to be reached. He added:
“Russia and Ukraine may agree to de-escalate and transform the existing front line into a kind of border. But agreements on broader issues – such as Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation and the status of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia – will be unattainable. The result will be a frozen conflict rather than a lasting peace – perhaps reminiscent of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.”.
In addition, Kateryna Stepanenko, an analyst on Russia and deputy group leader at the Institute for the Study of War, believes that a peace agreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine next year is unlikely, as the Kremlin continues to want to completely destroy the Ukrainian state, the capitulation of the Ukrainian government, and the liquidation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, former director of policy planning at the US State Department, Anne-Marie Slaughter, emphasized that a ceasefire would give Russia a much-needed respite and Ukraine a chance to rearm.
“And for Trump, an early victory that he can celebrate as proof of his ability to end wars, which is not the same as establishing peace,” the expert continued.
In turn, Jamie Shea, an associate fellow at the Chatham House International Security Program, noted that the United States and some European countries will push Ukraine to negotiate because they are tired of supporting our state.
“But real peace seems unlikely in 2025, as Ukraine demands security guarantees in the form of NATO membership or foreign peacekeepers on its territory, which the West will find difficult (and expensive) to provide, as well as reconstruction assistance and many details on refugee returns, prisoner transfers, Black Sea transit and demilitarized zones, negotiations on which will be complex and lengthy. So we should expect a return to a situation of frozen conflict, with Ukraine’s fate hanging in the balance,” Jamie Shea noted.
