There is no reason to fear a new attack on Kyiv from the northern border now, assures military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets. Belarusians and Russians have too little strength for this.
Regarding the next "hysteria" about the "attack on Kyiv from the north", which is about to begin...
At this moment, along the Ukrainian-Belarusian state border, the following grouping of forces and assets from the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (this is what is usually called the Volyn and Polissky operational districts):
- 2 amphibious assault battalions (dshb) from the 38th separate amphibious assault brigade (odshbr). One of them is active in the Uzhova and Pinska region, Brest Region. The other is in the Lelchitsi district, Brahin, Zyabrovka-2, Gomel region;
- 2 combined tactical units of the 5th separate special purpose brigade (model SpP). One deployed in the Ivanovo district, Brest region, the other in the Prybolovychi district, Gomel region;
- a tactical group (TGr) from the 51st Artillery Brigade (ABR), somewhere before the division (but there may be only 1-2 batteries), deployed south of the city of Gomel;
- a reactive artillery battery (reabatr) from the 336th reactive artillery brigade (reabr) deployed in the Zyabrovka area, Gomel region. (probably up to 3-4 "Polonez\M" type MLRS or 9K58 "Smerch").
In general, these "invasion forces" include:
- personnel (o\s) — up to 1,800 Belarusian military personnel (v\sl);
- 68-70 armored fighting vehicles (BBM), including tractors of the MT-LB type and armored vehicles;
- up to 22-24 units of artillery systems (AS), including guns and howitzers, self-propelled mortars of 100-mm caliber and also — 120-mm, 122-mm;
- and 3-4 multiple rocket launchers (RSZV).
As for the forces and means of "Russian etymology", the following are currently being used on the territory of Belarus:
- about 450-460 former "Wagners" (mainly from the so-called "permanent staff") are used by Lukashenka and the Belarusian military command subordinate to him as instructors in the formations of a number of law enforcement agencies of the "Minsk machine gun" regime;
- 3 Su-30SM (or Su-35S) fighters at the Baranovichi Air Base, probably from the 159th "Guards" Fighter Aviation Regiment (VAP).
Of course, if a more or less significant grouping of Russian troops appears there, it will hardly go unnoticed.
Therefore, at this stage (in the near future), I still consider all talk of another "invasion from the north towards Kyiv" to be premature...
