Even despite the shock, pain, and thousands of casualties, as well as unprecedented destruction, the first year of full-scale war ended for Ukrainians with a sense of victory and hope for rapid progress in 2023. But these hopes were dashed by reality.
Even with a decrease in the number of Russian attacks and destruction, and even fewer civilian deaths, in the second half of the year there was an understanding that war is not only about territory, but also about resilience.
In such a conflict, economic aspects become no less important than military actions: how much a country earns, what expenses it can cover, how much assistance its allies can provide.
We present the main figures on how Ukraine survived the second year of the war, some of which give an idea of the possible development of events in 2024.
During the second year of the great war, it was possible to reduce the number of casualties among the civilian population.
According to the Prosecutor General's Office (OGPU), a total of 11,673 people died from the beginning of the Russian invasion until the end of 2023, 2,821 of them in 2023. Therefore, civilian casualties during this period account for about a quarter of the total number of victims during the two years of war.
In addition, according to the OGPU, 18,336 Ukrainians were injured from the beginning of the Russian invasion until the beginning of 2024, of which 6,403 were in 2023. At the same time, according to estimates by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the number of deaths in Ukraine since 2014 is lower, namely 10,191 civilian deaths, of which 8,260 in 2022 and 1,931 in 2023.
However, it is noted that the actual number may be higher due to unconfirmed reports. It is also clear that the number of deaths in 2023 may increase due to the large number of deaths in early 2024, when, according to preliminary UN data, 90 people died.
It is impossible to establish the exact number of deaths in the first year of the war in some cities, where heavy civilian casualties were reported due to lack of access due to Russian occupation.
During the second year of the war, officials did not provide specific figures on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, the president and his representatives noted daily losses of 30 to 50 soldiers.
In January 2024, the head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction, David Arakhamia, stated the need to declassify data on Ukraine's losses in the war, but the president has not yet made a final decision.
According to David Arakhamia, the number of Ukrainian military casualties is much less than 100,000. President Zelensky also pointed to the heavy losses of Russian military personnel.
Human Rights Watch estimated the number of civilian deaths in the fighting in Mariupol at at least 8,000, indicating a potentially significant number of civilian deaths over time.
According to the collection "Book of Memory of the Fallen for Ukraine", the total number of soldiers killed since the beginning of the Russian invasion exceeds 30 thousand, which became the basis for the creation of the Wall of Memory of the Fallen in 2014-2021 in St. Michael's Golden-Domed Cathedral in Kyiv.
There have been attempts to estimate the number of deaths based on the president's posthumous decrees, which were published by mid-October 2023. Journalists estimated that 14,402 of these soldiers are mentioned. However, there are also closed decrees on posthumous awards, in particular, to employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Main Intelligence Directorate, and other special units.
After being appointed Commander-in-Chief in early February 2024, Oleksandr Syrskyi stated in an interview with German ZDF that Russian losses, especially in deaths, exceed Ukrainian losses by 7-8 times according to the latest data.
Security and defense spending is financed exclusively by tax revenues and other payments coming to the budget from the Ukrainian economy. In 2023, spending on these purposes amounted to UAH 2.6 trillion, or more than 40% of the country's expected GDP. This is 72% more than in 2022. According to economists, spending on the army alone in Ukraine exceeds a third of GDP. For comparison: in NATO countries with stronger economies, this figure is usually up to 2% in peacetime.
International financial assistance covered the other half of budget expenditures, in particular, civil servants' salaries and social benefits. During 2023, assistance was received rhythmically and in significant volumes. According to the Ministry of Finance, Ukraine received $42.5 billion in external financing, more than a quarter of this amount was in the form of grants, meaning that this money will not need to be returned.
In 2023, the European Union became the main “sponsor” of Ukraine, sending over $19.5 billion in aid. Compared to the previous year, the United States, which was the leader in terms of aid in 2022, transferred almost half as much – $10.95 billion.
Other major donors of financial assistance to Ukraine included the IMF ($4.475 billion), Japan ($3.626 billion), Canada ($1.757 billion), the United Kingdom ($998 million), and the World Bank ($660 million).
According to the Ukraine Support Tracker, if we "weigh" the assistance by the size of the economies of Ukraine's allied countries, the greatest support was provided by the Scandinavian and Baltic countries, in particular, Estonia, Denmark, Norway, Lithuania, and Latvia.
In 2023, the external financing received by Ukraine exceeded both the volumes of 2022 and the expectations of the Ukrainian government. However, it is clear that 2023 will remain a record year. The 2024 budget initially planned to receive $41 billion from international partners, but the Ministry of Finance later reduced this amount to $37.3 billion.
The destruction and damage caused by the Russian invasion continue to mount. According to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), the total direct damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure has risen to $155 billion as of January 2024. At the beginning of 2023, these losses were estimated at $138 billion. The largest share of the total losses remains the loss of housing stock – $58.9 billion. Among the regions that have suffered the most from the destruction of housing are Donetsk, Kyiv, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.
Infrastructure and industry remain in second and third place in terms of the amount of damage, as well as losses of enterprises - 36.8 billion and 13.1 billion dollars, respectively. KSE also calculated that as a result of the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP on June 6, 2023, at least 19 thousand houses were damaged - completely or partially flooded - in only four settlements of the left-bank Kherson region.
According to the latest report of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of mid-February 2024, there were 6.479 million refugees outside Ukraine, of which more than 6 million were in Europe. Of this number, 5.809 million Ukrainians received temporary protection in European countries.
Compared to the first year of the war, the total number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe has decreased slightly, but the number of people granted temporary protection has increased. According to a UNHCR survey, 80% of refugees from Ukraine are women, and in 69% of cases they are left without family members in Ukraine. The average age of Ukrainian refugees is 44 years.
The largest number of Ukrainian refugees, as of early February 2024, was registered in Germany – 1.140 million people, of whom more than a million received temporary protection. In Poland, which led in the number of refugees from Ukraine in 2022, 956 thousand Ukrainians now reside. In total, during the war, more than 1.6 million Ukrainians received temporary protection in Poland. According to the UN, there are about 1.252 million Ukrainian refugees in Russia and Belarus.
There are over five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Ukraine, 3.6 million of whom fled their homes after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. According to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories Iryna Vereshchuk, more than half of IDPs receive monthly payments. In 2023, over 73 billion hryvnias were spent from the budget on these payments, which is twice as much as on covering all utility subsidies in the country. According to the Ministry of Social Policy, 158 thousand people lost their right to payments because they went abroad.
According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the number of internally displaced persons in Ukraine at the end of 2023 was 3.689 million people. Of this total, almost half came from two regions - Kharkiv and Donetsk.
Approximately half of the displaced have also found refuge in two regions that are effectively on the front line – Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk (each with just under half a million people). In addition, a significant flow of displaced people is directed to Kyiv and Kyiv region.
According to the IOM, the main reason these regions are “popular” is the opportunity to find work. In the western regions, where more than a third of internally displaced people were in spring 2022, only 16% remained by spring 2023.
Every second displaced person had the experience of moving more than once, which, according to the IOM, is associated with difficulties in finding work in a new place. Men were more likely than women to face the problem of unemployment after moving, and every tenth of them had been moved more than three times.
According to IOM estimates, about 4.5 million people have returned to their places of habitual residence after a period of displacement, both within Ukraine and abroad. At the same time, 319 thousand people who returned from abroad became internally displaced persons in Ukraine.
The largest number of returnees came from Hungary, Poland and Romania. It is noted that only 37% of those who returned from abroad receive a regular salary, while the rest depend on pensions and social benefits for IDPs.
Compared to refugees abroad, IDPs have a lower proportion of women (around 60%) and a higher proportion of older people (almost a quarter). In addition, IDPs are more likely to report having exhausted all their savings during the war.
Regarding economic growth, after almost a third decline in 2022, Ukrainian GDP has shown positive dynamics since the second quarter of 2023. Various estimates indicate a possible growth of 5-5.5% in the second year of the war. Final data on GDP dynamics in 2023 will be known later.
First, it should be noted that the low base of comparison is credited with the main credit for economic growth. The decline in the first year of the conflict was so deep that even a slight halt in this decline looks like growth. However, despite signs of recovery, Ukrainian GDP remains about a quarter smaller than in the previous, pre-war year of 2021.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian economy has apparently recovered from the initial shocks of the Russian invasion. Some economic indicators have turned out to be better than expected. However, the effect of the low base of comparison has already worn off, and further recovery will be slower. This is confirmed by preliminary data for January 2024, when, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine's GDP grew by only 3.5% compared to January 2023.
Among the indicators that turned out to be better than expected is the hryvnia exchange rate. The national currency of the country, which is experiencing a full-scale war for the second year in a row, has even strengthened for most of the time. Against the background of the fact that the government had foreseen in the 2023 budget an average annual exchange rate of 42.2 hryvnias per dollar, the actual average annual exchange rate turned out to be lower than both government and non-government forecasts.
For a significant period of time, the National Bank decided to abandon the rigid fixation of the official hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar, which had been introduced since the first days of the war, and switched to “managed flexibility”, supporting the hryvnia through foreign exchange interventions from reserves. However, at the end of 2023, the hryvnia began to weaken and entered 2024 with an official exchange rate of 38 hryvnias per dollar.
Also noticeable in the second year of the war was positive news regarding inflation, another indicator monitored by the National Bank. While in 2022 Ukraine ended with a price increase of over 26%, in 2023 the inflation rate, which cannot be achieved even in peacetime, was about 5%.
The National Bank links these two indicators as follows: the removal of inflationary pressure allowed for currency stability. As for other factors, they mention a good harvest year, which contributed to a decrease in food prices, as well as a freeze on utility tariffs.
Observers, in turn, point to the refusal to finance the state budget deficit by “printing” money as one of the main reasons for the stability of the exchange rate and prices. This was made possible thanks to large-scale assistance from international partners, thanks to which the NBU’s foreign exchange reserves reached $40.5 billion in 2023, exceeding the previous record of $38.4 billion in 2011.
Before the war, the Ukrainian economy was largely export-oriented, accounting for about 40% of Ukraine's GDP in 2021, estimated at over $68 billion.
But in the second year of the conflict, export revenues fell to $36 billion. In 2022, Ukraine was able to export $44.2 billion.
At the same time, in the second year of the war, imports to Ukraine actually doubled compared to exports. According to the State Customs Service, in 2023, Ukraine imported goods worth $63.5 billion. And the foreign trade deficit (the difference between imports and exports) even compared to 2022, according to the National Bank, has more than doubled.
The reason for this was the loss of enterprises in the Russian-occupied territories, mainly metallurgical, as well as systemic problems on all export routes - from the Black Sea to the western borders with European countries, where “solidarity corridors” were supposed to operate. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and Russia’s withdrawal from the maritime grain corridor forced Ukraine to reorient its exports to the Danube ports. Ukrainian producers also began working on their own corridor in the Black Sea, relying on the protection of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The end of 2023 showed that sea grain exports had practically returned to their previous level, as at the peak of the grain corridor with the participation of Russia and the mediation of the UN and Turkey in 2022. Metallurgical products also began to arrive through these routes. This allowed increasing the workload of metallurgical enterprises, which began to reach 70% of their pre-war capacity.
However, the western border, primarily with Poland, has operated with significant restrictions since May 2023, or even been closed to Ukrainian goods and transportation due to protests, first by farmers and then by carriers, who believe that the presence of Ukrainian goods and services is destroying their domestic markets.
Despite all this, Poland remains one of Ukraine's three main partners in terms of both export and import volumes.
In general, Ukraine exported the most to the following countries:
- Poland — $4.7 billion;
- Romania — $3.7 billion;
- China — $2.4 billion.
However, the main income for Ukraine – by a large margin from all other items – was brought by the export of agricultural products – almost $22 billion.
Metal exports brought in five times less — almost $4 billion.
Recently, it has become noticeable that exports of IT services from Ukraine have decreased for the first time in many years - to $6.7 billion. This is more than $600 million less than in 2022.
Compared to the first year of the war, Ukrainians have become much less trusting of the authorities, and trust in law enforcement and justice has fallen even further. However, there are institutions and individuals that the majority of Ukrainians trust.
According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted in late November-early December 2023, Ukrainians trusted the Armed Forces of Ukraine the most (96%), and this trust did not change during another year of war.
Volunteers also enjoy a stable and high level of trust among Ukrainians (84%).
According to a January survey by the Razumkov Center, 95% of Ukrainians trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and 78% trust volunteers. Volunteer units, the State Emergency Service, the National Guard, border guards, and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) are also among the leaders in trust.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still trusted by the majority of Ukrainians, but their trust has decreased significantly. According to the Razumkov Center, 64% trust the institution of the presidency itself, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally has a trust level of 69%.
However, according to a KIIS survey, 65% of respondents trusted Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early February 2024. And the resignation of Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhny “cost” the president another 5% of his trust rating.
In February 2024, 94% of Ukrainians trusted the dismissed general. His successor as Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, is trusted by 40%.
Before the war, according to KIIS, President Zelenskyy was trusted by 37% of Ukrainians, but in the first months of the conflict this figure jumped to 90%. After that, support began to fall - in December 2022, the head of state was trusted by 84%, and by the end of 2023 - already 77%.
Other central government bodies have significantly less trust, and it is declining. According to KIIS, over the past year, the number of those who trust the government and the Verkhovna Rada has halved.
According to a survey by the Razumkov Center, the Cabinet of Ministers and the Verkhovna Rada are considered leaders in distrust.
In general, according to KIIS, there is a decrease in the number of people in Ukraine who believe that things in the country are developing in the right direction.
Significant changes occurred at the turn of 2023 and 2024, when for the first time since the beginning of the war, the number of those who believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction increased. If after the first months of the conflict, those who supported the right course were 68%, then by December 2023 their number decreased to 54%, and two months later - to 44%. Similar results are reflected by the Razumkov Center. According to their survey, if before the war in December 2021 only 20% of the population believed in the right direction of Ukraine's development, then after the beginning of the conflict by the fall of 2022 more than half of Ukrainians became convinced of the correct course.
The maximum value of this indicator was noted in February-March 2023 - 61%. After that, faith began to decrease, and in January 2024, confidence decreased to 41%.
Ukrainians most often criticize the following areas:
- price and tariff levels (86% for worsening of the situation);
- the economic situation of the country (68%);
- stability level (64.5%);
- citizens' confidence in the future (63.5%);
- their family's level of well-being (58%);
- citizens' attitude towards the government (53%).
However, there are also positive changes. Ukrainians note an improvement in the situation regarding the elimination of the consequences of massive shelling of energy infrastructure, as well as improvements in the operation of public utilities and trade, as well as food supply.
The most obvious positive changes of recent times, according to Ukrainians, concern Ukraine's defense capabilities and international image.
