Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine is underway, now entering its third year. The front lines have remained largely unchanged in recent months, and the question of whether the conflict could change in 2024 remains a hot topic. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that the spring offensive has not been as successful as he had hoped, with Russia currently holding about 18% of the country’s territory.
We asked three military analysts for their opinions on how they see possible developments over the next 12 months.
The war will drag on, but it won't last forever
Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King's College London
The prospects for ending the war in Ukraine remain bleak. Vladimir Putin's position appears to be stronger than last year, but this is mainly in the political, not the military, dimension.
The situation on the front remains uncertain. It would seem that the Ukrainian offensive has stopped, but there has also been no breakthrough by Russia's allies. Now the outcome of the war depends much more on political decisions made at a great distance from the conflict itself - in Washington and Brussels.
The amazing unity that the West displayed in 2022 and maintained throughout 2023 is beginning to unravel.
US military aid has become a prisoner of what President Biden called Washington’s “petty politics.” The future of EU economic support appears to hinge on Hungary’s absurd stance.
At the same time, the vacillations in Western capitals are encouraging Putin. His recent speeches and bold statements indicate that, in his opinion, Russia is ready for a long war.
So, will the West have enough strength and resilience to continue to confront the Russian leader and all that he represents?
The European Union's decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova is not just a formality, but an important milestone that indicates continued support for Kyiv. It sends a signal that Ukraine's future in the EU is a priority, despite Russian pressure.
In Washington, a complete policy shift is unlikely as Donald Trump’s approval ratings rise. While it is tempting to imagine a scenario where he would end support for Ukraine if he wins the 2024 US election, the reality is that the former president will not be able to turn the transatlantic partnership around on his own.
The West is divided in its support, making 2024 a difficult year for democracies. Building long-term consensus in support of war has always been more difficult for them than for autocrats.
While the war could last all of 2024, it is important to note that it cannot go on indefinitely. Thanks to the West’s indecision, Russia could become even more aggressive. Nevertheless, since a coup d’état or the death of the president is unlikely, negotiations remain the only realistic option for resolving the conflict, despite both sides’ rejection of them.
A year of consolidation lies ahead
Michael Clarke, former director general of the Royal Joint Institute for Defence Studies, points out that Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine has brought the return of major war to the European continent. The events of 2023 have also marked the return of industrial warfare.
Industrial warfare is shifting the economy partially, and in some countries completely, onto military rails. Russia's defense budget has tripled compared to 2021, and next year it is expected to become 30% of government spending.
This makes the war in Ukraine longer and more traumatic than any similar conflict Europe has seen since the middle of the last century. The coming year will show how well Russia, together with its suppliers in North Korea and Iran, and Ukraine, with its Western partners, can meet the demands of industrial-age warfare, which will define a new reality at the European and global levels.
The front line in Ukraine has remained largely unchanged for the past year, but it would be wrong to claim that the conflict is stagnant. Both sides are committed to continuing the fight, seeking to seize strategic initiatives.
Russia may decide to expand its activity again on the entire front, including the possibility of seizing the entire Donbas. On the other hand, Ukraine may try to capitalize on its successes in the Black Sea.
In addition, Kyiv may take measures to carry out military surprises aimed at throwing the enemy off balance.
However, overall, 2024 looks like a period of consolidation for both Kyiv and Moscow.
Russia lacks both the technical and human resources for a strategic offensive and is unlikely to be able to launch one until the spring of 2025.
Ukraine needs support from the West to maintain its position next year, while strengthening its internal reserves for future challenges.
The modern war that is taking place represents a conflict between societies, where the battlefield is only a manifestation of this deep struggle.
The course of events in 2024 will be determined not only in distant political arenas such as Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang, but also in rural settlements such as Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk, and other battlegrounds along the front line.
Ukraine will put pressure on Russia over Crimea
Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, noted that Russia lacks the decisive and breakthrough potential to seize Ukraine. He indicated that Russia is focusing on holding acquired territories and strengthening its defense capabilities, while hoping for the West's ability to withdraw from supporting Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is not giving up its fight. The country is actively defending its survival and has a clear idea of the possible consequences of a Russian victory. More and more European countries are expressing their willingness to increase aid as resentment and fear grow over a possible retreat of resolve on the part of the United States.
However, I predict that early next year the US will finally pass the aid package that Congress has been holding up.
In this regard, the following steps can be expected from Ukraine:
- Restoring units tired from months of fighting for future offensives.
- Improving the mobilization system.
- Increasing domestic production of ammunition and weapons.
- Overcoming Russia's advantage in the field of electronic warfare (EW).
By the summer, Ukraine plans to use American F16 fighter jets for the first time, which could improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen air defense.
The most strategically important area that remains under Russian control is Crimea, which Ukrainians consider a “crucial territory.” Ukraine plans to continue to pressure the Russians in the region, making the Russian naval presence in Sevastopol unacceptable, including the air force base and logistics depots in Dzhankoy.
Despite limited resources, including artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons, Ukraine will continue to show restraint and a strategic approach. Russian soldiers, in turn, will be tested in will and logistics, as the Ukrainian logistical system puts their national system under constant pressure.
