Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine continues, and it is now in its third year. The frontline has barely changed in recent months, and the question of whether the course of the conflict could change in 2024 remains in the spotlight. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi admitted that the spring offensive did not bring the success he had hoped for, and at the moment Russia holds about 18% of the country's territory.
Three military analysts were asked about how they see the possible development of events in the next 12 months.
The war will drag on, but it won't last forever
Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King's College London
The prospects for the end of the war in Ukraine remain unfavorable. Compared to last year, Vladimir Putin's positions are stronger, but this mainly concerns the political, not the military, dimension.
The situation at the front remains uncertain. It would seem that the offensive of Ukraine has stopped, but the breakthrough of Russia's allies has not happened either. Now the outcome of the war depends much more on political decisions made at a great distance from the conflict itself - in Washington and Brussels.
The amazing unity that the West displayed in 2022 and maintained throughout 2023 is beginning to unravel.
Military aid from the United States is caught up in what President Biden called Washington's "petty politics." The future of economic support from the EU seems to depend on Hungary's ridiculous position.
At the same time, fluctuations in Western capitals encourage Putin. His recent speeches and bold statements indicate that, in his opinion, Russia is ready for a long war.
Thus, will the west have enough strength and resilience to continue to oppose the Russian leader and everything he represents?
The decision of the European Union to start negotiations on the accession of Ukraine and Moldova is not just a formality, but an important stage that indicates the continuation of support for Kyiv. This sends a signal that Ukraine's future in the EU is a priority, regardless of Russian pressure.
In Washington, a likely complete change in policy is unlikely as Donald Trump's approval ratings soar. Although there is a temptation to imagine the scenario of ending support for Ukraine in the event of his victory in the 2024 US elections, the reality is that the former president alone will not be able to turn the transatlantic partnership around.
The West is divided in its support, and this makes 2024 difficult for democracies. A long-term consensus in support of war has always been more difficult for them than for autocrats.
While the war may last all of 2024, it is important to note that it cannot last indefinitely. Thanks to the indecision of the West, Russia can become even more aggressive. However, since a coup d'état or the death of the president are unlikely, negotiations remain the only real option for resolving the conflict, despite rejection by both sides.
A year of consolidation is ahead
Michael Clarke, former director-general of the Royal Joint Institute for Defense Studies, points out that Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine has led to the return of a major war to the European continent. The events of 2023 also marked the return of industrial warfare.
Industrial warfare shifts the economy partially, and in some countries completely, to the rails of war. Russia's defense budget has tripled in comparison to 2021, and next year it is expected to become 30% of government spending.
This leads to the fact that the war in Ukraine is becoming longer and more traumatic than any similar conflict that Europe has seen since the middle of the last century. The coming year will show to what extent Russia, together with its suppliers in North Korea and Iran, and Ukraine, with its Western partners, will be able to meet the demands of industrial age warfare, which will define a new reality at the European and global levels.
During the year, the front line in Ukraine has undergone almost no changes, but it would be wrong to claim that the conflict is in a stagnant state. Both sides are committed to continuing the struggle, seeking to seize strategic initiatives.
Russia may decide to again expand activity on the entire front, including the possibility of seizing all of Donbas. On the other hand, Ukraine may try to take advantage of its successes in the Black Sea.
In addition, Kyiv can take measures to carry out military surprises aimed at throwing the enemy off balance.
However, in general, 2024 looks like a period of consolidation for both Kyiv and Moscow.
Russia lacks both the technical and human resources for a strategic offensive and is unlikely to be able to launch it until the spring of 2025.
Ukraine needs support from the West in order to maintain its position in the coming year, while strengthening domestic reserves for future challenges.
The modern war that is taking place is a conflict between societies, where the battlefield is only an expression of this deep struggle.
The course of events in 2024 will be determined not only in distant political arenas such as Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang, but also in rural settlements such as Avdiyivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk, and other battlegrounds along front line.
Ukraine will put pressure on Russia around Crimea
Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, noted that Russia lacks the decisive and breakthrough potential to seize Ukraine. He pointed out that Russia is focusing on keeping the acquired territories and strengthening its defense capabilities, while hoping for the West's ability to withdraw its support for Ukraine.
At that time, Ukraine did not stop its struggle. The country actively defends its survival and has a clear idea of the possible consequences of Russia's victory. A growing number of European countries are expressing their willingness to increase aid as anger and fear grow over a possible backsliding by the US.
However, I predict that early next year the US will finally pass the aid package delayed by Congress.
In this regard, the following steps can be expected from Ukraine:
- Recovery of units tired from months of fighting for future offensives.
- Improvement of the mobilization system.
- Increase in own production of ammunition and weapons.
- Overcoming Russia's advantage in the field of electronic warfare (EW).
By summer, Ukraine plans to use American F16 fighter jets for the first time, which could improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its air defenses.
The most strategically important area that remains under Russian control is Crimea, which Ukrainians consider a "crucial territory." Ukraine plans to keep up the pressure on the Russians in the region, to make the presence of the Russian navy in Sevastopol unacceptable, including the air force bases and logistics depots in Dzhankoy.
Despite limited resources, including artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons, Ukraine will continue to show resilience and a strategic approach. Russian soldiers, in turn, will be tested by will and logistics, because the Ukrainian logistics system puts their national system under constant pressure.
