A ceasefire scenario along the current front line, in which Russian President Vladimir Putin is forced to agree to it by China and the countries of the Global South, and the EU and NATO give Kyiv security guarantees and realistic prospects for accession, is optimal for Ukraine under the conditions of its current international financial and military support and a real assessment of its prospects, according to the famous economist Nouriel Roubini.
"And then you will be able to start rebuilding your country, become part of Europe, eventually become part of NATO. And, after all, you know, Russia is a country in decline - economically , socially and politically. Everything will explode. It can last five years, it can last 10 years, and maybe somewhere in the future you will be able to get the rest of your land back," he expressed this opinion during the discussion "Global threats from war with Russia and peace formula ". organized by the Viktor Pinchuk Foundation on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Roubini believes that the current political situation in the USA, as well as restrictions in the EU, such as, for example, Hungary, do not allow Ukraine to count on additional economic and military assistance in the necessary amounts.
"But even if there was money, there is another bottleneck. Currently, there are not enough weapons in the world for all the conflicts that have to be fought. It is not only Russia and Ukraine. This is what is happening in the Middle East. The US should hand it over to Taiwan, restore its forces in Guam and Okinawa. There is literally not enough ammunition to give everyone the ability to fight and defend whatever you want," he added.
According to the economist, given the results of the counteroffensive in 2023 and the defenses built by Russia, the probability of success of the future counteroffensive, which will be associated with new victims, destruction of infrastructure, and losses of the economy, is small, and rather, it is even possible for the Russian troops to advance, taking into account the military economy they have built .
At the same time, Roubini noted that the impossibility of resolving the current situation by military means should not force Ukraine to abandon its long-term goals of restoring territorial integrity.
He emphasized that the good news is the start of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU, which means significant investments in the event of an end to the war, in particular with the USA, debt restructuring, and later $300 billion of frozen Russian assets may be added to the funds for recovery.
The economist admitted that Putin is an obstacle to achieving a ceasefire.
“But I think at this point the Global South and China will tell him that these conflicts are causing so much damage to the Global South in terms of food prices, energy prices, etc., that this deal will have to be accepted. In my opinion, this is the best thing you can realistically achieve right now," Roubini concluded.
He emphasized that even if there is a ceasefire, it still means that Putin has lost the war, because he thought that in two weeks he would take over Ukraine and install a puppet government, and in all that time he was able to increase the controlled territory from 14% to 18%. without achieving the set goals.
"Ukraine will never be part of Russia, it will be part of Europe and NATO. And how much it costs Russia is a horror, a catastrophe ," the economist said.
In his opinion, the economic losses of the Russian Federation now and in the future may lead to the collapse of the regime, and perhaps the new regime will be ready to discuss territorial issues with Ukraine.
Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Mykola Tochytskyi said that a ceasefire is what Putin wants, maybe not today, but it will be an example to his allies that it is possible to question the international order, start aggression and take land, violating territorial integrity.
"We do not see opportunities for any discussions with Putin's regime," Tochytsky emphasized.
