At the beginning of July, the Ukrainian hryvnia continued to depreciate against the US dollar, but at the end of the month, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) began active measures to stabilize the national currency. Will the dollar rate increase in August, and what factors can affect the exchange rate?
Oleksiy Plotnikov, Doctor of Economic Sciences and Honored Economist of Ukraine, noted that currently the situation with the hryvnia has stabilized thanks to the intervention of the NBU through currency interventions and other mechanisms. In his opinion, one should not expect a significant strengthening of the hryvnia, as it will probably continue to depreciate in the long term. Plotnikov predicts that the dollar exchange rate may reach 41 hryvnias by the end of the year. He also emphasized that August will be relatively stable, without significant exchange rate fluctuations.
The economist explained that the current stability is connected with the fact that there is no significant demand for foreign currency among Ukrainians, as well as with the absence of pressure on the exchange rate due to the restructuring of the state debt. This allows us to predict a calm August, and from September, a gradual decrease in the value of the hryvnia may begin, but without sharp jumps.
Oleg Pendzin, executive director of the Economic Discussion Club, supports the opinion about the stability of the hryvnia exchange rate in the coming months. He believes that by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate may rise to 42.5-42.6 hryvnias. Pendzin notes that the NBU, gradually weakening the hryvnia, seeks to avoid a sharp rise in inflation. In particular, in the middle of the month, when social obligations are paid, the Ministry of Finance can sell dollars at a slightly higher price to ensure conversion.
Thus, August will pass at a stable level, and certain changes in the hryvnia exchange rate can be expected already in autumn. Experts believe that these changes will not be drastic and will not create significant financial pressure on the Ukrainian economy.
