In Ukraine, the exchange rate is fully controlled by the National Bank of Ukraine, but the record volume of currency purchases and sales in July this year attracted the attention of experts. July 2024 was a 12-year record for currency trading volume, creating a need for fresh advice on buying and selling currency.
The July record and its consequences
The head of the Secretariat of the Council of Entrepreneurs under the Cabinet of Ministers, economist Andriy Zablovskyi, in a comment to TSN, noted that in July individuals sold currencies worth $1.658 billion and bought $2.275 billion. The net purchase was $1.117 billion, which is $145 million more than in June. Zablovsky expressed doubt about the feasibility of such operations, since the currency rate was rising in August, which could lead to losses for those who bought the currency in July.
Investment advice: OVDP vs. hryvnia deposits
Oleg Pendzyn, a member of the Economic Discussion Club, advises to focus on investments in hryvnia domestic state loan bonds (OVDP). According to him, bonds are more profitable than hryvnia deposits, which have limited interest. The yield on OVDP varies from 13% per annum for securities maturing in 4 months to 16% for securities maturing in 2026. Pendzin also emphasized that income from OVDP is not taxed, although a new military levy may appear, which will increase the tax burden.
Currency forecast for the coming week
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn believes that the best time to buy currency was the end of July, when the dollar fell in price. At the same time, experts predict that the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will not exceed 42 hryvnias this week. Exchange rate fluctuations may be minor, but analysts expect that the currency will not remain stable.
