US President Donald Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said that to resolve the war, both countries must make concessions. He said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "has already made it clear that he will soften his position on the territories," and Russian leader Vladimir Putin must also take a step back.
In your opinion, why has Zelensky's rhetoric changed so much over the past month? Instead of banning negotiations with Putin - "We are ready", instead of "Not a word without Ukraine!" - "We would also like to participate", instead of "NATO and that's it" - "Give at least some guarantees"?
He does not want to enter into conflicts with the Trump administration. At this stage, it is obvious that Trump wants to reach an agreement as soon as possible, resolve everything, declare the end of the war and thus say that he is a good guy and quickly solved the problem that the Joseph Biden administration created. He pays great attention to this. And if in this situation Ukraine takes some position that will be in dissonance with Trump's position, then he will simply say that Kyiv does not want to solve anything, so let it deal with its problems itself. This scenario, to put it mildly, is not favorable, so for now the Ukrainian authorities will play along with Trump. The calculation, I think, is quite simple - faced with real negotiations with Putin, Trump and his team will understand that he is not capable of negotiating, and after that they will have to change their policy, perhaps in some way more favorable to Ukraine. It's not a fact that this will happen, but this scenario looks better than immediately becoming non-negotiable in Trump's mind, and thus permanently closing the possibility of any US assistance for four years.
I think that at this stage it is important for Trump to hold negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and achieve a result. Trump is obviously convinced that as a great negotiator, as soon as he gets everyone together, he will immediately solve everything.
Trump's entourage regularly says that elections need to be held in Ukraine as soon as possible. The other day, Trump's mouthpiece Tucker Carlson pedaled the topic of "Zelensky's illegitimacy." Does this media fuss mean that in the eyes of the Trump administration, Zelensky is illegitimate, and the US intends to push for elections so that only their winner signs the necessary documents with Russia?
I would like to emphasize that Trump personally did not say anything about Zelensky's legitimacy or the need for elections. Carlson spoke about illegitimacy. Keith Kellogg spoke in a short interview about the desirability of holding elections by the end of the year, especially if some agreements on a ceasefire are reached. Therefore, it is difficult to say how official this position is. Since Trump recently emphasized that he plans to hold negotiations with Ukraine in the person of Zelensky and Russia, it is obvious that he does not see any problems in holding negotiations with the Ukrainian leader. And Kellogg's statement may well be Russia's response to Putin's words that if you consider Zelensky illegitimate, then we can discuss the issue of holding elections.
The Trump administration wants elections to be held by the end of the year. But Zelensky has repeatedly said that there will be no elections until the end of the war. Does this mean that Zelensky will refuse to hold elections, or is a freeze on hostilities a realistic option so that Ukraine can hold elections?
There are a lot of “ifs” here. I think that Zelensky will emphasize that a real ceasefire and security guarantees are necessary for holding elections. That is quite fair. We do not know what the Trump administration will say in response to this. We also do not know what options they will offer. We also do not know what Russia, for example, will agree to. It is quite difficult to predict. But I think that the emphasis will be on the need for security guarantees for holding elections, and, most likely, after that, the issue of elections may reach a dead end, because no one will provide these security guarantees. Theoretically, everything is possible, but I believe that when it comes to practical discussions, there will be too many questions.
Kellogg said that Zelensky “has made it clear that he will soften his position” and that Putin will also have to soften his position for negotiations. What concessions has Zelensky expressed a willingness to make, and what concessions will Putin be forced to make?
I think the Trump administration is set on freezing the war on the current front line. At the same time, they want Europe to take on the main burden of maintaining this agreement and restoring Ukraine, and they would be a mediator on the sidelines. If Zelensky authorizes something like this, he will demand security guarantees in the form of the deployment of foreign troops, some guarantees of sending weapons, military assistance, etc. It is unclear whether the Trump administration will go for it. It simply wants to freeze everything where it is and put this issue in a long drawer. It is clear that Russia will put forward a number of additional political demands, one of which is the same elections. And not only elections, for example, also the admission of pro-Russian politicians to these elections, amnesty for them, the Russian language, and the like. This can also put the prospects of such agreements under some big question. So, for now, it's all a game around which everyone is trying to exploit the fact that Trump really wants to reach agreements quickly.
We cannot know, even theoretically, what it might ultimately lead to. If even some of the most advantageous agreements are not sanctioned by Russia, it will still not make any sense. It is possible that even the most disadvantageous agreements from the point of view of Ukraine will ultimately be rejected by Putin, because he may take a maximalist position, saying that he will win everyone anyway, and he does not need to negotiate with anyone. I think that the Trump administration will not be able to force Putin to make any serious concessions.
If relations between Ukraine and the United States deteriorate, to what extent will Europe be able to compensate for the American financial, military, and humanitarian assistance that has been coming since 2022?
I believe that we need to focus on the fact that there will be no significant assistance from the US. This is not a question of Ukrainian-American relations, this is Trump's position - not to give money outside the US, that all money should remain in the country. Therefore, most likely, there will definitely be no talk of any significant military assistance, especially financial assistance. Europe, in principle, has the resources to provide assistance to Ukraine. But the question is - how it will behave in the new conditions, because there is already a threat of a trade war between the EU and the US. Theoretically - Europe could help Ukraine quite significantly. Practically - we do not know how it will react to the new position of the US, and how united it will be in this situation.
